New Year means resolutions and predictions, most of which will be abandoned by the middle of January. So in keeping with the spirit of the season here are my brief guesses on the next year.
General Election
The General Election will be some time in March. FF won't do as badly as polls suggest, Labour not as well with the end result around FG 63, FF 45, Lab 38, SF 10, Others 10 leading to a substantial majority for FG/Lab.
Presidential Election
David Norris will manage to get 4 councils to support his nomination but his transfers will help Michael D Higgins to just take the Áras from FG.
The Economy
The rising tide of European economies will drag Ireland back into low growth but without much in the way of job creation.
The North
Business as usual heading into the Assembly elections with SF looking to become the largest party and hold the 1st Minister position but being pipped at the post by DUP. Other Unionists and SDLP fail to make ground.
Dublin
The Dublin Mayor elections will not happen and the greater Dublin area will continue to suffer due to lack of joined up thinking. Metro North and the Interconnector will continue to be postponed but the Incinerator will push ahead.
TCD
Paddy Prendergast to be elected Provost with a fairly sizeable victory with no outside candidate to come even close. Well founded mutterings of closed shop to be heard.
Sport
Leinster to win the HEC and Magners League, Ireland to get to the Semis of the Rugby World Cup, Bohs to find a sugar-daddy to bail them out, Ireland to loose in a Euro-2012 playoff, Down to beat Kerry for Sam, Cork to retain McCarthy.
Online
I'll keep blogging and tweeting much to the annoyance of my missus. In 365 days I'll come back and see how well my crystal ball was working. Happy New Year to all!!
Hi Dermot,
ReplyDeleteHere are a few of my comments on your predictions!
General Election
Did you do this on a constituency-by-constituency basis, or more generally? I think your numbers are probably broadly right, though I would like to think that you have overstated FF and understated Lab.
Presidential Election
You may be right about Michael D edging Norro, but it will depend on who the FG candidate is. A weak FG candidate and a weak FF means that it's all to play for on the left. The question must be: who could FG run, given that many of the big FG beasts fancy their chances at more substantial political roles. Earlier speculation about John Bruton disappeared when de brudder launched his botched coup.
The Economy
Agreed
The North
Probably
Dublin
Yes
TCD
Indeed
Sport
Of course, I'm not convinced that Leinster will win both the HEC and Magners League :-) They are playing very attractive and effective rubgy at the moment, and stand a very good chance in the HEC, but are they too far off the pace in the Magners? This is not to predict that Munster will be able to last the pace either, but it's better to be first than fourth at this stage of the season.
I can't see who Bohs' sugar-daddy is likely to be, and I absolutely don't accept that Kerry will lose Sam to Down!!!
Online
You'll keep blogging and tweeting much to the annoyance not only of your missus but also of us poor readers of your blog and followers on twitter!
Keep up the good work.
Eoin
I've done the election both as 43 separate battles as well as eyeballing the whole shebang. The above figures are a composite of the two. I would like to agree with you but couldn't stand over a 50 seat Labour or a 25 seat FF.
ReplyDeleteFor the Aras I'd say FG might be looking at Mairead McGuinness or Gay Mitchell. Of course they could also look to ship Noonan or Enda up to the park to free up some cabinet positions. Would Ivan Yeats be eligible if he declares himself bankrupt? Interesting times!
The Sport predictions were a bit more tongue in cheek. But we only need to be 4th in the League to get into the playoff - after that anything goes. Maybe Bono with his new Facebook windfall will help out the Bohs.