Sunday, January 30, 2011

Election Predictions - Connacht/Ulster

The final set of predictions for the election this time looking west and north.


This is fertile ground for SF where they should be able to capitalize on a weak FF performance and take a second seat. FG, despite not having any deputies standing for re-election also look good to take two with O'Reilly and Humprhies. Smith should hang on to the final seat.
1 FF, 2 FG, 2 SF (FF -2, FG +1, SF +1)

Donegal North-East

Once a FF stronghold, the organization has been falling apart there in the last number of years. There are also strange goings on in FG where they seem to be wedded to the concept of only running one candidate. More than most places in the country, geography is very important here with Inishowen, Fanad and Letterkenny all voting for their own candidates rather than within a party. That said, SF through MacLochlainn will pick up one seat as will Joe McHugh. Assuming that FF don't suicidally try a three candidate strategy they should hold on to Blaney's seat.
1 FF, 1 FG, 1 SF (FF -1, SF +1)

Donegal South-West

The recent by-election here showed the strength of SF in Donegal with Doherty pulling in almost 40% of the vote. While this may not be replicated in the general he will top the poll. Again FG seem to be following a single candidate strategy with McGinley. Mary Coughlan will be hard pushed by Thomas Pringle who might just sneek passed her when Doherty's surplus and McBrearty's votes are distributed.
FG 1, SF 1, Ind 1 (FF -1, Ind +1)

Galway East

Despite having reasonable urban centres in Balinasloe, Claregalway and Tuam, Galway East has only returned FF and FG deputies since the 60s when Clann na Talmhan were still in business. This means it is one of the few places in the country where FF's decline may not be as bad as elsewhere, especially seeing as both current FG TDs are retiring at the election. When the dust settles I don't see any change here unless Declan Ganley runs in which case he may take the second FF seat.
FF 2, FG 2 (nc)

Galway West

Eamon O'Cuiv to hold one seat for FF. FG should take two here but it is not clear which candidates will get them - Healy-Eames and McCormack probably. Nolan should hold on to the Labour seat vacated by the retirement of Michael D Higgins but will be strongly challenged by ex-Labour member Catherine Connolly. The final seat will be between Grealish and FFs Fahey which I expect the former PD to hold on.
FF 1, FG 2, Lab 1, Ind 1 (FF -1, FG +1)


Enda Kenny, despite his best efforts will not be able to win four out of the five seats in Mayo for FG. The retirement of Beverley Flynn ensures the safety of Dara Calleary of FF. The final seat will be between Cowley for Labour and Conway-Walsh for SF which I see SF taking by a very small margin.
1 FF, 3 FG, 1 SF (FF -1, SF +1)

Roscommon/South Leitrim

Likely that the two FG deputies will be returned unscathed. The final seat will be a serious fight between FF, Lab and Luke Flanagan. While it would be amazing to see Ming the Merciless in the Dáil I'm calling this one for Kelly based on his strong track record as an independent before joining Labour.
2 FG, 1 Lab (FF -1, Lab +1)

Sligo/North Leitrim

Scanlon's recent retreat back into FF should (paradoxically) help him retain his seat. FG will most likely take the other two with McLoughlin doing well in Sligo town. Expect this to become more exciting if Declan Bree decides to run for ULA or Marian Harkin makes a surprise comeback.
1 FF, 2 FG (FF -1, FG +1)

Overall Figures

Left Indo1
Right Indo1

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