Sunday, January 30, 2011

Election Predictions - Overall

In the four previous posts I have predicted the seats in each of the 43 constituencies around the country. The aggregate totals are as follows

FFFGLabSFGULALeft IndoRight Indo

This leaves the following combinations as potential governments. This is purely on the numbers, not based on ideology or statements of exclusion.
  1. Fine Gael and Labour - 105 seats, majority of 45
  2. Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil - 95 seats, majority of 25
  3. Fine Gael, Sinn Féin, Left Indos and ULA - 85 seats, majority of 5
  4. Labour, Fianna Fáil and Sinn Féin - 88 seats, majority of 11
  5. Labour, Fianna Fáil and all Indos, ULA - 88 seats, majority of 11
Option 1 is the outcome that everyone is expecting. Option 2 is the logical end of the civil war but has been ruled out by Fine Gael even if it is a minority FG with support from FF. Option 3 wouldn't last a wet week - all those lefties would have Leo Varadkar going up in a puff of smoke. Options 4 and 5 have been ruled out by Labour and rightly so as FF need to be put into opposition.

Therefore on my predictions we're heading for a substantial FG/L coalition with Enda Kenny as Taoiseach and Eamon Gilmore as Tánaiste with 9 FG and 6 L around the cabinet table with an additional super-junior or attorney general being appointed by Gilmore. There just isn't any other realistic option on the table.

PS - time moves fast in politics at the moment. Since I posted my Donegal predictions it turns out that Blaney will not be running for FF. Oh well!

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