As usual the results of the Sunday Business Post poll have been leaked a few hours early. Today's figures, which were collected Tuesday-Thursday, show FG on a monstrous 38% with Labour leading the rest on 20% followed by FF 15%, SF 10%, Green 3% and Independents on 14%. The other main figure to note is that undecideds have dropped from 20% to 17% so the public are making their minds up.
The result that these polls indicate is Fine Gael forming a single party government, either through a small overall majority or else with the support of some of the right leaning independents such as Ross, Lowry and Lord Healy-Rae II. Back in 1982 FG won 39% of the vote and got 42% of the seats. But that was with the backdrop of FF winning 45% of the vote. With the nearest competition almost 20 points behind, FG will get a huge seat bonus with most of the last seats falling to them.
So where do the other parties go from here? Attacking Enda for being weak has failed, ignoring Enda has failed, attacking each other has failed. It seems to me that FG have taken a long hard look at the New Labour strategy from 1997 and it is working for them. Just stick to the message and ignore everything else going on around you. The big problem for FF, Lab and SF is the sharp focus of their campaigns on their respective leaders. FG have been smart in letting Bruton, Varadkar, Reilly and others take the lead showing it as a team effort.
There are still two weeks to go and in Irish politics, where there are 43 local elections happening around the country, anything could happen. But at present it is looking good for FG but they may be wondering have they peaked to soon or are they still building momentum.
Showing posts with label Opinion Poll. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Opinion Poll. Show all posts
Saturday, February 12, 2011
Sunday, September 26, 2010
Polls Apart
What a difference a few days makes. On Thursday evening TV3 released the results of an opinion poll that it commissioned from Millward-Browne which showed Labour as the best supported party in the state. Then on Saturday evening the regular RedC poll in the Sunday Business Post was released and it showed that FG were back in the driving seat.
Both polls were carried out by phone early in the week and no major incidents had occurred during the polling period. Both polls also had a sample size of around 1000, giving a margin of error of ±3. So what can one read into these figures?
Obviously, the major discussion point is the 12% difference in recorded support for Labour. While I think it is fair to say that nobody actually believed 35% to be the actual figure, certainly a figure of 31% or 32% could have been believed. The last MRBI poll had Labour around there and the previous RedC had 27%. Sinking back to 23%, while still over twice support won in the last general election, will be seen as a bit of a disappointment. Similarly, Sinn Féin's figures seem a bit off. Based on previous polls I would have expected a result around 8%-10% and so again the TV3 figures seem to underestimate their support.
Otherwise the polls track each other fairly closely. FF is somewhere in the low to mid 20s, FG in the low to mid 30s and the Greens are struggling along at the bottom. Perhaps the explanation comes from a fight for left leaning voters with Labour and SF dipping into the same pool of around 35%-40% of the population. In the run up to an election, if the Gilmore for Taoiseach proposition looks like becoming a reality, SF could find itself squeezed as the left collectively jumps on the bandwagon to ensure this outcome. However, if Labour stall in the low 20s and will be the junior partner in an FG/L coalition then SF, and indeed PBP and Socialists, may do well as the vote of choice for angry working class voters. Its all down to momentum.
| Party | TV3 | SBP | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fianna Fáil | 22 | 24 | 2 |
| Fine Gael | 30 | 31 | 1 |
| Labour | 35 | 23 | 12 |
| Sinn Féin | 4 | 10 | 6 |
| Green | 2 | 3 | 1 |
| Other | 7 | 9 | 2 |
Both polls were carried out by phone early in the week and no major incidents had occurred during the polling period. Both polls also had a sample size of around 1000, giving a margin of error of ±3. So what can one read into these figures?
Obviously, the major discussion point is the 12% difference in recorded support for Labour. While I think it is fair to say that nobody actually believed 35% to be the actual figure, certainly a figure of 31% or 32% could have been believed. The last MRBI poll had Labour around there and the previous RedC had 27%. Sinking back to 23%, while still over twice support won in the last general election, will be seen as a bit of a disappointment. Similarly, Sinn Féin's figures seem a bit off. Based on previous polls I would have expected a result around 8%-10% and so again the TV3 figures seem to underestimate their support.
Otherwise the polls track each other fairly closely. FF is somewhere in the low to mid 20s, FG in the low to mid 30s and the Greens are struggling along at the bottom. Perhaps the explanation comes from a fight for left leaning voters with Labour and SF dipping into the same pool of around 35%-40% of the population. In the run up to an election, if the Gilmore for Taoiseach proposition looks like becoming a reality, SF could find itself squeezed as the left collectively jumps on the bandwagon to ensure this outcome. However, if Labour stall in the low 20s and will be the junior partner in an FG/L coalition then SF, and indeed PBP and Socialists, may do well as the vote of choice for angry working class voters. Its all down to momentum.
Sunday, June 13, 2010
The old heave ho
All the talk of the last few days has been about the results of Friday's opinion poll in the Irish Times that put Labour as the most supported party in the state. Even allowing for IPSOS/MRBI's probably flawed method of allocating undecideds, the core vote for each party still puts Labour top of the heap by a point. But the most interesting outcome has been the inevitable talk of replacing the leaders of both FF and FG.
Enda Kenny, for all his organisational skills, has not sold himself to the floating voter. In a time period where FF's vote has collapsed to less than half their election result only two years ago, FG have not made the required inroads and a lot of that is down to Kenny's performance. He gets a lot of credit for bringing FG back from the brink in 2002 but his time is up. The difficulties come up when you try to figure out who should take over at the helm.
The obvious candidate is Richard Bruton. As deputy leader and finance spokesman has been a good performer in the Dáil, jointly attacking Brian Lenihan with Labour's Joan Burton on all things economic. As a Dublin based candidate he might also help revive the party in the capital and push them back up towards Labour's level of support. The downside is that a Dublin leader will not attract the rural vote, but his name and his brother John's farming background might reduce that effect. Were Bruton to take the top job, FG's biggest problem is who to put into the finance role - it is unclear that there is an obvious candidate for that position.
After that it is hard to come up with potential candidates. The right-wing section of the party would love to put Leo Varadkar in charge but that would alienate large swathes of the voters. The rural section would be very against a Dublin leader and so might look to someone like Simon Coveney or Phil Hogan. Of the Dublin TDs, Alan Shatter has been very vocal on the Children's Rights issues and Brian Hayes has built up good support in a traditionally FG unfriendly area in Tallaght but neither of them at the moment have a national profile that would be required to lead FG into a general election.
So really it all points to Bruton. The next week will be interesting. If the motion of no confidence in Cowen passes then Kenny becomes Taoiseach after an election and the heave never happens. If the motion is defeated, and it probably will be, then Enda Kenny will have to fight hard for his political career.
Enda Kenny, for all his organisational skills, has not sold himself to the floating voter. In a time period where FF's vote has collapsed to less than half their election result only two years ago, FG have not made the required inroads and a lot of that is down to Kenny's performance. He gets a lot of credit for bringing FG back from the brink in 2002 but his time is up. The difficulties come up when you try to figure out who should take over at the helm.
The obvious candidate is Richard Bruton. As deputy leader and finance spokesman has been a good performer in the Dáil, jointly attacking Brian Lenihan with Labour's Joan Burton on all things economic. As a Dublin based candidate he might also help revive the party in the capital and push them back up towards Labour's level of support. The downside is that a Dublin leader will not attract the rural vote, but his name and his brother John's farming background might reduce that effect. Were Bruton to take the top job, FG's biggest problem is who to put into the finance role - it is unclear that there is an obvious candidate for that position.
After that it is hard to come up with potential candidates. The right-wing section of the party would love to put Leo Varadkar in charge but that would alienate large swathes of the voters. The rural section would be very against a Dublin leader and so might look to someone like Simon Coveney or Phil Hogan. Of the Dublin TDs, Alan Shatter has been very vocal on the Children's Rights issues and Brian Hayes has built up good support in a traditionally FG unfriendly area in Tallaght but neither of them at the moment have a national profile that would be required to lead FG into a general election.
So really it all points to Bruton. The next week will be interesting. If the motion of no confidence in Cowen passes then Kenny becomes Taoiseach after an election and the heave never happens. If the motion is defeated, and it probably will be, then Enda Kenny will have to fight hard for his political career.
Sunday, May 30, 2010
Leaning Left
Today's SBP/RedC poll is significant even though there are no changes outside the margin of error. Mainly it shows that the seven point bump that Labour gained last time out has by and large been retained. Secondly, it shows that last month's poll was a blip in SF support, rather than a nose dive. Thirdly it shows that no matter how bad things are, there is still a quarter of the adult population who will support FF through thick and thin. And finally it demonstrated that FG are not making the sorts of gains that they should. Being down 5 points over a two month period is not good.
Taken as a whole I would say it reflects well on the left as a credible alternative to the tried and untrusted policies of FF and FG. Together Lab, SF and G have 37%, which while not currently enough to oust the conservative blocks, is a huge step forward from the last general election. This is especially welcome when you consider that in areas where SF are likely to hold and/or gain seats, Labour is well off the pace (both Donegals, Cavan/Moneghan) or looking to gain an extra seat themselves (Dublin SC, Dublin SW).
It is a pity, therefore, that the various left groups spend more time fighting amongst each other than working together. I attended last week's Right to Work protest having missed the first two. The event was dominated by SWP, PBP and Eirigí with some support from SF and Labour. Listening to the speeches though, the groups spent more time slagging each other off than actually making headway against the government and promoting job creation. Luckily the event passed off without incident and a very good natured march down to Dublin Castle rounded out a nice evening in the sunshine. Hopefully the complete lack of potential violence and disorder at the last march will convince more people to join. Until all the trade unions and Labour come out officially in support of the campagin, I can't seen it getting more than a few thousand attendees at best.
Taken as a whole I would say it reflects well on the left as a credible alternative to the tried and untrusted policies of FF and FG. Together Lab, SF and G have 37%, which while not currently enough to oust the conservative blocks, is a huge step forward from the last general election. This is especially welcome when you consider that in areas where SF are likely to hold and/or gain seats, Labour is well off the pace (both Donegals, Cavan/Moneghan) or looking to gain an extra seat themselves (Dublin SC, Dublin SW).
It is a pity, therefore, that the various left groups spend more time fighting amongst each other than working together. I attended last week's Right to Work protest having missed the first two. The event was dominated by SWP, PBP and Eirigí with some support from SF and Labour. Listening to the speeches though, the groups spent more time slagging each other off than actually making headway against the government and promoting job creation. Luckily the event passed off without incident and a very good natured march down to Dublin Castle rounded out a nice evening in the sunshine. Hopefully the complete lack of potential violence and disorder at the last march will convince more people to join. Until all the trade unions and Labour come out officially in support of the campagin, I can't seen it getting more than a few thousand attendees at best.
Monday, May 3, 2010
May Day bump for Labour
It's been a while since I commented on an opinion poll, mainly because in the last 6 months or so all changes have been within the margin of error. It's been just two days since the results of the most recent RedC poll were published. Since then there have been two depressing rugby matches and one awesome gig so I almost let it slide. However, the result is so unexpected that it is worth commenting on even at this remove.
The headline story is the 7 point increase for Labour pushing them above Fianna Fáil into second place on 23%. There are a few plausible explanations for this massive increase in support in such a short period of time.
The real question is how much of this jump is permanent or is it actually a rogue poll that sometimes just happens with the random sampling. If June's RedC shows Labour still above 20% then I would see this as a sustainable increase in core support rather than just a flash in the pan.
The headline story is the 7 point increase for Labour pushing them above Fianna Fáil into second place on 23%. There are a few plausible explanations for this massive increase in support in such a short period of time.
- Party Conference
- The Labour Party Conference was held in Galway a few weeks ago. The televised leader's speech by Eamon Gilmore was positive and well received generally. Generally after a conference a party's support can be expected to increase somewhat.
- New Recruits
- The party has been actively recruiting members and potential candidates in the last while, especially in areas where previously there would be little support for Labour. With a plausible candidate in place, voters who might previously have only been inclined to vote for the party will now actually come out and declare their support.
- UK Issues
- Nick Clegg and the Liberal Democrats in the UK have shown that it is possible to become a new force in a stale electoral situation. While Clegg's star seems to be fading again, over the polling period a lot of the news cycle from the UK was centered on his excellent performance in the first leaders' debate. There is now serious momentum for Gilmore to be included in a three way debate with Kenny and Cowen whenever the next general election is called.
- Consolidation
- The left vote is consolidating behind Labour most notable with a 4% drop in support for Sinn Féin. Again with Labour being seen as a serious threat to the two larger parties the protest vote will move Labour rather than start off as a PBP or the like and then transfer to Labour at a later count
The real question is how much of this jump is permanent or is it actually a rogue poll that sometimes just happens with the random sampling. If June's RedC shows Labour still above 20% then I would see this as a sustainable increase in core support rather than just a flash in the pan.
Friday, October 23, 2009
RedC Poll this weekend
The next SBP RedC poll is due out on Sunday. Last time out the state of the parties was (if I remember correctly)
Firstly, Lisbon was passed. The positive publicity from that should have helped end the rot in FF. But then the John O'Donoghue incident came to the fore and apart from in Kerry that can't have helped FF at all. Labour came out all guns blazing on that but then didn't deliver the killing blow by letting JO'D have his moment in the sun rather than forcing the motion of no confidence.
The Green Party love in a few weeks ago will have brought them back into focus. However, in the current political and economic climate keeping your head below the parapet is probably a safer course of action.
Enda Kenny's outburst on the Seanad last weekend will certainly have influenced opinion. People are looking for any easy way to make cuts and culling 60 overpaid, underworked politicians would be a popular choice. What will be interesting to see is whether this stunt has attracted voters due to the policy or driven them away due to the solo run nature of the announcement.
All the while the NAMA saga rumbles on as do the rumours about what cuts will be made in the budget in about 6 weeks time. Throw into the mix the drink driving ruckus and all in all it has been an interesting month in politics. So here are my predictions for Sunday's poll
- FG - 35%
- FF - 24%
- Lab - 20%
- SF - 8%
- G - 4%
- Other - 11%
Firstly, Lisbon was passed. The positive publicity from that should have helped end the rot in FF. But then the John O'Donoghue incident came to the fore and apart from in Kerry that can't have helped FF at all. Labour came out all guns blazing on that but then didn't deliver the killing blow by letting JO'D have his moment in the sun rather than forcing the motion of no confidence.
The Green Party love in a few weeks ago will have brought them back into focus. However, in the current political and economic climate keeping your head below the parapet is probably a safer course of action.
Enda Kenny's outburst on the Seanad last weekend will certainly have influenced opinion. People are looking for any easy way to make cuts and culling 60 overpaid, underworked politicians would be a popular choice. What will be interesting to see is whether this stunt has attracted voters due to the policy or driven them away due to the solo run nature of the announcement.
All the while the NAMA saga rumbles on as do the rumours about what cuts will be made in the budget in about 6 weeks time. Throw into the mix the drink driving ruckus and all in all it has been an interesting month in politics. So here are my predictions for Sunday's poll
- FG - 34% (-1%)
- FF - 20% (-4%)
- Lab - 21% (+1%)
- SF - 9% (+1%)
- G - 6% (+2%)
- Other - 12% (+1%)
Saturday, September 26, 2009
Role reversal
The most startling result of today's MRBI poll in the Irish Times is the breakdown by class. The class system used by polling companies has six categories
I would guess that the DE move is from the traditional working class vote that was staunchly FF that are now fleeing the sinking ship. Seeing as Enda Kenny is most likely to be the next taoiseach the DE group don't want to be seen as aligned against his party.
Luckily the poll in the Farmer's Journal shows that it is business as usual in rural Ireland. In the RedC poll published during the week for the ploughing championships FF were down 21% to 25% and FG up 22% to 68% leaving a huge 7% to be divided between all the other parties and independents. Luckily for the left, the number of people in the farming community is small and diminishing.
- A - higher professionals, management
- B - middle professionals
- C1 - clerical and lower administrative
- C2 - skilled manual labour
- D - semi and unskilled labour
- E - welfare and casual workers
I would guess that the DE move is from the traditional working class vote that was staunchly FF that are now fleeing the sinking ship. Seeing as Enda Kenny is most likely to be the next taoiseach the DE group don't want to be seen as aligned against his party.
Luckily the poll in the Farmer's Journal shows that it is business as usual in rural Ireland. In the RedC poll published during the week for the ploughing championships FF were down 21% to 25% and FG up 22% to 68% leaving a huge 7% to be divided between all the other parties and independents. Luckily for the left, the number of people in the farming community is small and diminishing.
Thursday, September 24, 2009
RedC Poll
Yesterday evening about 630 I got called by RedC, the company who do the opinion polls for the Sunday Business Post. It's the first time I was polled since the mid 90s when we regularly had MRBI call to the door. The first thing I noticed was that the young lady asking the questions had an English accent and added to the background noise from whereever she was phoning from it made understanding some of the questions difficult.
First up was the important stuff - Lisbon and a general election. Fairly straight forward will you vote, what way will you vote and if there was a GE tomorrow which party would you vote for. The also asked about how I voted in the previous referendum and GE so I guess they're trying to judge how big the swing is from last time.
After that came a raft of questions about the GAA. Initially it was questions about recognition of sponsors of the hurling (I knew Guinness and Etihad) and football championship (Ulster Bank). Now anyone who knows me will know that I wouldn't be much into GAA so all the questions about the role of the GAA and if it was good/bad were lost. Next was an even more useless set of questions to ask me about coffee and fair trade. Since I don't drink the stuff every single one of them was a don't know.
Finally she got back to a more interesting topic - the pay differences between public and private sector and a set of provocative statements to agree or disagree with. There were also some rank the level of service provided by the public sector in education, health etc.
It'll be interesting to see the results in Sunday's paper to see how (non) conformist my answers were. The only down side was the interview took longer than I thought and my pizza was burned in the oven by the time it was completed!
First up was the important stuff - Lisbon and a general election. Fairly straight forward will you vote, what way will you vote and if there was a GE tomorrow which party would you vote for. The also asked about how I voted in the previous referendum and GE so I guess they're trying to judge how big the swing is from last time.
After that came a raft of questions about the GAA. Initially it was questions about recognition of sponsors of the hurling (I knew Guinness and Etihad) and football championship (Ulster Bank). Now anyone who knows me will know that I wouldn't be much into GAA so all the questions about the role of the GAA and if it was good/bad were lost. Next was an even more useless set of questions to ask me about coffee and fair trade. Since I don't drink the stuff every single one of them was a don't know.
Finally she got back to a more interesting topic - the pay differences between public and private sector and a set of provocative statements to agree or disagree with. There were also some rank the level of service provided by the public sector in education, health etc.
It'll be interesting to see the results in Sunday's paper to see how (non) conformist my answers were. The only down side was the interview took longer than I thought and my pizza was burned in the oven by the time it was completed!
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