Friday, October 23, 2009

RedC Poll this weekend

The next SBP RedC poll is due out on Sunday. Last time out the state of the parties was (if I remember correctly)
  • FG - 35%
  • FF - 24%
  • Lab - 20%
  • SF - 8%
  • G - 4%
  • Other - 11%
So what has happened in the meantime that might change people's political viewpoint?

Firstly, Lisbon was passed. The positive publicity from that should have helped end the rot in FF. But then the John O'Donoghue incident came to the fore and apart from in Kerry that can't have helped FF at all. Labour came out all guns blazing on that but then didn't deliver the killing blow by letting JO'D have his moment in the sun rather than forcing the motion of no confidence.

The Green Party love in a few weeks ago will have brought them back into focus. However, in the current political and economic climate keeping your head below the parapet is probably a safer course of action.

Enda Kenny's outburst on the Seanad last weekend will certainly have influenced opinion. People are looking for any easy way to make cuts and culling 60 overpaid, underworked politicians would be a popular choice. What will be interesting to see is whether this stunt has attracted voters due to the policy or driven them away due to the solo run nature of the announcement.

All the while the NAMA saga rumbles on as do the rumours about what cuts will be made in the budget in about 6 weeks time. Throw into the mix the drink driving ruckus and all in all it has been an interesting month in politics. So here are my predictions for Sunday's poll
  • FG - 34% (-1%)
  • FF - 20% (-4%)
  • Lab - 21% (+1%)
  • SF - 9% (+1%)
  • G - 6% (+2%)
  • Other - 12% (+1%)
No major changes - only FF to move more than the margin of error. I reckon the inertia of the Irish electorate is greater than people think.

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