Sunday, January 30, 2011

Election Predictions - Leinster

Part 2 of the election predictions, this time looking at Leinster outside of Dublin. (Edit: I left out Wicklow in my initial posting - sorry!!)


McGuiness' maverick role will help return two FF seats bucking the national trend. FG will finally get their vote strategy right and also win the second seat with Anne Phelan picking off the Greens only rural seat.
2 FF, 2 FG, 1 Lab (FF -1, FG +1, Lab +1, G -1)

Kildare North

Effectively an extension of Dublin with many commuter towns, the FF vote will collapse here with both seats lost, one to the 2nd Labour candidate and the other to independent Catherine Murphy.
1 FG, 2 Lab, 1 Ind (FF -2, Lab +1, Ind +1)

Kildare South

Fine Gael will win back the seat that Alan Dukes used to hold at the expense of FF's O'Fearghail. Otherwise no change.
1 FF, 1 FG, 1 Lab (FF -1, FG +1)


The big issue here is whether Brian Cowen will run or not. Assuming he does then FF should hold on to two of their three seats. With Enright retiring a new FG face will turn up in Leinster House along with a Sinn Féin seat for Brian Stanley.
2 FF, 2 FG, 1 SF (FF -1, SF +1)


The Mae Sexton saga makes this an interesting constituency to keep an eye on. Penrose will top the poll and FG will manage their vote to get McFadden and Bannon elected. The final seat will feature FF scrapping with Sexton but the combined votes of O'Rourke and Kelly will see one of them home.
1 FF, 2 FG, 1 Lab (FF -1, FG +1)


Ahern's retirement and Adams' arrival has spiced up Louth a bit more than usual. Blogged about it a while back but things have moved on since then. Now looks like no FF will be elected but Kirk will be returned as Ceann Comhairle. Two FG and Nash for Labour to join Gerry as the Louth representatives.
1 FF, 2 FG, 1 Lab, 1 SF (FF -1, FG +1, Lab +1)

Meath East

Dominic Hannigan to take one of the two current FF seats in more of the commuter-belt FF meltdown.
1 FF, 1 FG, 1 Lab (FF -1, Lab +1)

Meath West

English to top the poll for FG in the absence of Dempsey. Tobin to take one of the remaining seats for SF and then Labour, FF and second FG to duke it out for the final seat. Seems likely that Brady will hang on due to benefit of incumbency rather than being much of a TD.
1 FF, 1 FG, 1 SF (FF -1, SF +1)


Howlin and both FG seats are safe. After that there will be one FF seat, probably Sean Connick. The final seat will go to the wire between FG, Lab and SF which I'm going to give to SF.
1 FF, 2 FG, 1 Lab, 1 SF (FF -1, SF +1)


Both FG and Labour are running a three candidate strategy to try and cover all the bases in this large constituency. Both should return two seats. FF's demise in the communter belt will continue with ex-FFer Behan holding off Dick Roche's challenge to take the remaining seat.
2 FG, 2 Lab, 1 Ind (FF -2, Lab +1, Ind +1)

Overall Figures

Left Indo1

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