Sunday, January 30, 2011

Election Predictions - Dublin

With the Dáil about to be dissolved it is time to put my proverbial money where my mouth is and do a constituency by constituency guess at the election results. These will be split over 4 posts - Dublin, Leinster, Munster and Connacht/Ulster and finally a summary post with totals, predicted coalition and potential ministers. As with all predictions, take with a pinch of salt. So here we go!

Dublin Central

With Bertie retiring there are three sitting TDs looking for re-election. Joe Costello should take the 1st seat. After that things are less clear. There is definitely another left leaning seat there and one for either FF/FG. The final seat I see going left as there won't be enough transfers to get the other FF/FG candidate elected. I'll put Maureen O'Sullivan in as #2, Mary Fitzpatrick as #3 and Mary-Lou McDonald to keep Paschal Donohoe looking for Enda to keep a space for him in the Seanad.
1 FF, 1 Lab, 1 SF, 1 Ind (FF -1, SF +1)

Dublin Mid West

In Mary Harney's old stomping ground Joanna Tuffy may well be the only sitting TD returned. With the FF and PD tide gone out, Frances Fitzgerald and Derek Keating should mop up those rightish, middle class votes. While Paul Gogarty will not be elected, his transfers will decide it between Robert Dowds and Eoin O'Broin for the final seat which I'm going to call for Dowds.
2 FG, 2 Lab (FF -1, FG +2, Lab +1, G -1, Ind -1)

Dublin North

Splitting Swords in two has to be the stupidest thing the electoral boundary commission did in their last review. That said this is another area where the FF vote will collapse and neither of the sitting TDs will be returned. James Reilly and Brendan Ryan will head the field. Clare Daly of the Socialists under the ULA banner will poll strongly and take a seat and I expect Trevor Sargent to hang on for a rare positive story for the Greens.
1 FG, 1 Lab, 1 G, 1 ULA (FF -2, Lab +1, ULA +1)

Dublin North Central

One of the easier constituencies to predict, Seán Haughey will lose his seat to Aodhan O'Riordan with the others holding firm. Richard Bruton's surplus won't be very big at all as the anti-Enda feeling in Dublin will stop Naoise O'Muirí being at the races.
1 FG, 1 Lab, 1 Ind (FF -1, Lab +1)

Dublin North East

Tommy Broughan and Terence Flanagan should be safely home here. The final seat will depend on whether Larry O'Toole managed to hang on to the core SF team when Killian Forde moved to Labour. I'm going to give the seat the Seán Kenny at the moment but it will be very tight.
1 FG, 2 Lab (FF -1, Lab +1)

Dublin North West

The final three seater in the North of the city. With Noel Ahern retiring Pat Carey's chances of hanging on to his seat have been given a major boost. It seems insane for FG to be running two candidates and would seem to rule them out of wining a seat. Róisín Shortall will top the poll but will not have enough to take in a running mate leaving Dessie Ellis of SF to take the final seat without getting near the quota.
1 FF, 1 Lab, 1 SF (FF -1, SF +1)

Dublin South

Sprawling, liberal and volatile, Dublin South is always entertaining especially with Shane Ross and Peter Matthews now joining the fray. FG should be good for two seats despite the George Lee debacle but Ross has killed off any chance of a third seat for them. Labour, running the same ticket as last time, will have Alex White comfortably elected. The final seat will be a battle royale between Maria Corrigan, Aidan Cullhane and Eamon Ryan and will be decided by a handful of votes. If I was a betting man, I'd put my money on Corrigan holding on.
1 FF, 2 FG, 1 Lab, 1 Ind (FF -1, Lab +1, G -1, Ind +1)

Dublin South Central

The most left leaning constituency in the country, this will not be pleasant for FF or much better for FG unless a heavy-weight parachute (an oxymoron if ever there was) is found. Labour will definitely take two, SF will hold. Joan Collins of the ULA will win a seat and if Labour can manage their vote successfully, transfers from FG and FF should see them pick up the final seat.
3 Lab, 1 SF, 1 ULA (FF -2, FG -1, Lab +2, ULA +1)

Dublin South East

This is where I vote and I've blogged about it before calling it Quinn, Humphries, Creighton and Andrews. Since then I have seen nothing that has changed my mind about the result.
1 FF, 1 FG, 2 Lab (Lab +1, G -1)

Dublin South West

Pat Rabbitte to top the poll with Brian Hayes doing well in the Templeogue end of the constituency. SF's Sean Crowe will also take a seat leaving the final spot for the two incumbent FF and Eamonn Maloney of Labour to fight over. Based on the current low polling of FF I'd say Maloney will take it.
1 FG, 2 Lab, 1 SF (FF -2, Lab +1, SF +1)

Dublin West

Up from a three to a four seater, before the FF leadership debacle this would have been the easiest constituency in the country to predict with the three sitting TDs returned along with Joe Higgins for the ULA. However, after Lenihan's poor showing in the leadership battle, the door is now open for Pat Nulty to challenge for the final seat. However, I don't see it leading to a second seat for Labour.
1 FF, 1 FG, 1 Lab, 1 ULA (ULA +1)

Dun Laoghaire

Down from five to four seats, this is pretty much the exact opposite of Dublin West - it could go any direction. Assuming both FF TDs stay on the ballot paper, Gilmore will top the poll. Sean Barrett will take the FG seat and between them the FFers should have a quota which will see Hanafin elected when Andrews is eliminated. Gilmore's surplus should bump Ivana Bacik alongside Richard Boyd-Barrett and so Cuffe's votes will decide the final seat which I'm giving to Bacik.
1 FF, 1 FG, 2 Lab (FF -1, Lab +1, G -1)

Overall Figures

Left Indo2
Right Indo1

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