Sunday, January 30, 2011

Election Predictions - Munster

Part 3 of the election predictions, this time looking at Munster.


Traditionally quite a conservative constituency, Clare will not throw up any great surprises this time out either. Kileen's retirement has ensured Timmy Dooley's survival and both FG TDs will be returned. The final seat will feature former FF and now Independent James Breen taking on Labour's Michael McNamara but there won't be a Bhamjee-2 and Breen will retake his seat.
1 FF, 2 FG, 1 Ind (FF -1, Ind +1)

Cork East

Another constituency where FF face a complete wipeout. Sherlock and Stanton to be returned with Barry and Mulvihill seeing off sitting TD Michael Ahern and Ned's replacement Kevin O'Keefe.
2 FG, 2 Lab (FF -2, FG +1, Lab +1)

Cork North Central

An interesting fight here where rural and urban collide. The departure Noel O'Flynn as part of the FF seat saving strategy certainly improves the chances of Kelleher holding on. Labour look good for two with a balanced ticket of Lynch and Gilroy and FG should also successfully replace Bernard Allen. However, don't be surprised to see both ULA and SF poll relatively well and challenge for one of the Labour seats if Lynch and Gilroy don't manage their vote properly.
1 FF, 1 FG, 2 Lab (FF -1, Lab +1)

Cork North West

*YAWN*. Historically the most boring constituency in the country. Despite Ballincollig recently being moved into CNW, it is still a huge rural constituency where the Civil War parties will continue their dominance.
1 FF, 2 FG (FF -1, FG +1)

Cork South Central

From boring to very exciting. With Micheal Martin now the leader of FF his seat should be safe as will Ciaran Lynch due to his phenomenal work rate. FG should be good for two seats but which of their three candidates will lose out? I'd say Buttimer may replace Clune who will fight with Desmond of Labour for the final seat. Dan Boyle will yet again poll relatively strongly but fail to win a seat and his transfers will push Desmond over the line. Geography will play a strong role in this constituency between the town and harbour candidates.
1 FF, 2 FG, 2 Lab (FF -1, Lab +1)

Cork South West

Like its northern neighbour CSW is a fairly boring constituency with 2 FG and 1 FF returned for almost all elections since the 80s. Despite both sitting deputies retiring FG should be able to continue their fine tradition here. The interesting bit will be if Labour can win a seat that they haven't held in 30 years but my gut feeling is that FF should hold on through one of their candidates. Also interesting to note the Green candidate is Jennifer Sleeman who tried to organize the boycott of mass last Autumn.
1 FF, 2 FG (NC)

Kerry North/West Limerick

With the return of a Spring to the ballot paper for Labour and the addition of some FG friendly territory from Limerick things are not looking good for FF in this area. Ferris for SF should see off McEllistrim for the final seat.
1 FG, 1 Lab, 1 SF (FF -1, Lab +1)

Kerry South

At the time of John O'Donoghue's resignation I made a small charity bet with someone that he would top the poll. Now it looks like my money will be going to help some needy children. The Healy-Rae machine is still strong in the next generation and Jackie's last minute concessions to help pass the Finance Bill won't have hurt one bit. Sheahan safe for FG and Moloney will pass the transfer repellent Bull to grab the last seat. Could we see Kerry as a completely FF free zone?
1 FG, 1 Lab, 1 Ind (FF -1, Lab +1)


The rural part of the county, this three seater will see Finucane picking off one of the sitting FF deputies with Collins likely to survive due to the party machine being strongly behind him.
1 FF, 2 FG (FF -1, FG +1)

Limerick City

The city has lost a seat in the redrawing of the boundaries. This spells an end to two seats for FF with Peter Power to be clobbered by O'Dea's amazing vote gathering ability. Beyond that it is hard to see any further lineup changes despite Noonan's increased profile (no chance of three seats!) and SF's Quinlivan's association with the O'Dea resignation.
1 FF, 2 FG, 1 Lab (FF -1)

Tipperary North

This is Lowry country and yet again the independent will top the poll. FG to hold Coonan's seat and Kelly will return from Europe and demolish Hoctor's base in Nenagh to take the third seat.
1 FG, 1 Lab, 1 Ind (FF -1, Lab +1)

Tipperary South

Tom Hayes will easily hold his seat. Mattie McGrath will take the FF Ind seat and Healy will just about see off Prendergast for the single left seat unless the Gilmore Gale picks up during the campaign.
1 FG, 1 ULA, 1 Ind (FF -2, ULA +1, Ind +1)


Brian O'Shea's retirement and a strong push from left-wing independent John Halligan will make it almost impossible for Labour to increase from one to two seats. Instead FG will capitalize on the departure of Martin Cullen and take a second seat through Paudie Coffey. Kenneally will hold on for FF and lets say Ciara Conway takes the Labour seat (but I have no good reason for picking her over her running mate).
1 FF, 2 FG, 1 Lab (FF -1, FG +1)

Overall Figures

Right Indo4

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