Campaign Diary - Day minus 1

So the day is almost upon us. Posters have been printed and teams are ready to clamber up every lamppost in the country. The phony war is almost over and we can go into overdrive for the next 3 odd weeks trying to get our preferred candidates elected.

In a way, it almost feels anti-climatic. For more than a year now the government has been wobbling from one crisis to the next and at each stage we on the opposition side have been calling for them to go to the country. Now that Cowen is about to do that, after the stage-managed events in Leinster House tomorrow, it feels a little bit flat. We were all hoping that they'd go out with a bang, instead a slow-motion implosion over the last two months has made it difficult to get hyped up. However, once the starting gun is fired all that will go and it will be all hands to the pump.

Of course the campaign has really be underway for the last few months. We have been leafleting and canvassing steadily since the selection convention last May, partly on local issues with the councillors but also as an exercise in getting the name out for the new candidate Kevin Humphries in the Pembroke-Rathmines ward where he may not be as well known. Tonight we have the final pre-election canvass and leaflet drop in Rathmines followed by a branch meeting to rally the troops for the coming weeks.

The thing that is nice about politics in Ireland is that no matter how vitriolic the fighting between the parties gets on the national stage, at a local level things always remain cordial. Groups of canvassers that meet will co-ordinate to not knock at the same doors one after the other. Warnings of rabid dogs (and rabid voters!) are exchanged and pints will be drunk together in the local pubs. We all recognize that we have to live together in the same areas after the election so best off not being a complete jerk.

To all who will be wearing out the shoe leather over the next month, good luck. It's going to be tough but it's ultimately rewarding whether you win or lose.

Election Predictions - Overall

In the four previous posts I have predicted the seats in each of the 43 constituencies around the country. The aggregate totals are as follows

FF	FG	Lab	SF	G	ULA	Left Indo	Right Indo
32	63	42	14	1	4	4	6

This leaves the following combinations as potential governments. This is purely on the numbers, not based on ideology or statements of exclusion.

1. Fine Gael and Labour - 105 seats, majority of 45
   
2. Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil - 95 seats, majority of 25
   
3. Fine Gael, Sinn Féin, Left Indos and ULA - 85 seats, majority of 5
   
4. Labour, Fianna Fáil and Sinn Féin - 88 seats, majority of 11
   
5. Labour, Fianna Fáil and all Indos, ULA - 88 seats, majority of 11
   

Option 1 is the outcome that everyone is expecting. Option 2 is the logical end of the civil war but has been ruled out by Fine Gael even if it is a minority FG with support from FF. Option 3 wouldn't last a wet week - all those lefties would have Leo Varadkar going up in a puff of smoke. Options 4 and 5 have been ruled out by Labour and rightly so as FF need to be put into opposition.

Therefore on my predictions we're heading for a substantial FG/L coalition with Enda Kenny as Taoiseach and Eamon Gilmore as Tánaiste with 9 FG and 6 L around the cabinet table with an additional super-junior or attorney general being appointed by Gilmore. There just isn't any other realistic option on the table.

PS - time moves fast in politics at the moment. Since I posted my Donegal predictions it turns out that Blaney will not be running for FF. Oh well!

Election Predictions - Connacht/Ulster

The final set of predictions for the election this time looking west and north.

Cavan/Monaghan

This is fertile ground for SF where they should be able to capitalize on a weak FF performance and take a second seat. FG, despite not having any deputies standing for re-election also look good to take two with O'Reilly and Humprhies. Smith should hang on to the final seat.
1 FF, 2 FG, 2 SF (FF -2, FG +1, SF +1)

Donegal North-East

Once a FF stronghold, the organization has been falling apart there in the last number of years. There are also strange goings on in FG where they seem to be wedded to the concept of only running one candidate. More than most places in the country, geography is very important here with Inishowen, Fanad and Letterkenny all voting for their own candidates rather than within a party. That said, SF through MacLochlainn will pick up one seat as will Joe McHugh. Assuming that FF don't suicidally try a three candidate strategy they should hold on to Blaney's seat.
1 FF, 1 FG, 1 SF (FF -1, SF +1)

Donegal South-West

The recent by-election here showed the strength of SF in Donegal with Doherty pulling in almost 40% of the vote. While this may not be replicated in the general he will top the poll. Again FG seem to be following a single candidate strategy with McGinley. Mary Coughlan will be hard pushed by Thomas Pringle who might just sneek passed her when Doherty's surplus and McBrearty's votes are distributed.
FG 1, SF 1, Ind 1 (FF -1, Ind +1)

Galway East

Despite having reasonable urban centres in Balinasloe, Claregalway and Tuam, Galway East has only returned FF and FG deputies since the 60s when Clann na Talmhan were still in business. This means it is one of the few places in the country where FF's decline may not be as bad as elsewhere, especially seeing as both current FG TDs are retiring at the election. When the dust settles I don't see any change here unless Declan Ganley runs in which case he may take the second FF seat.
FF 2, FG 2 (nc)

Galway West

Eamon O'Cuiv to hold one seat for FF. FG should take two here but it is not clear which candidates will get them - Healy-Eames and McCormack probably. Nolan should hold on to the Labour seat vacated by the retirement of Michael D Higgins but will be strongly challenged by ex-Labour member Catherine Connolly. The final seat will be between Grealish and FFs Fahey which I expect the former PD to hold on.
FF 1, FG 2, Lab 1, Ind 1 (FF -1, FG +1)

Mayo

Enda Kenny, despite his best efforts will not be able to win four out of the five seats in Mayo for FG. The retirement of Beverley Flynn ensures the safety of Dara Calleary of FF. The final seat will be between Cowley for Labour and Conway-Walsh for SF which I see SF taking by a very small margin.
1 FF, 3 FG, 1 SF (FF -1, SF +1)

Roscommon/South Leitrim

Likely that the two FG deputies will be returned unscathed. The final seat will be a serious fight between FF, Lab and Luke Flanagan. While it would be amazing to see Ming the Merciless in the Dáil I'm calling this one for Kelly based on his strong track record as an independent before joining Labour.
2 FG, 1 Lab (FF -1, Lab +1)

Sligo/North Leitrim

Scanlon's recent retreat back into FF should (paradoxically) help him retain his seat. FG will most likely take the other two with McLoughlin doing well in Sligo town. Expect this to become more exciting if Declan Bree decides to run for ULA or Marian Harkin makes a surprise comeback.
1 FF, 2 FG (FF -1, FG +1)

Overall Figures

FF	7
FG	15
Lab	2
SF	5
Left Indo	1
Right Indo	1

Election Predictions - Munster

Part 3 of the election predictions, this time looking at Munster.

Clare

Traditionally quite a conservative constituency, Clare will not throw up any great surprises this time out either. Kileen's retirement has ensured Timmy Dooley's survival and both FG TDs will be returned. The final seat will feature former FF and now Independent James Breen taking on Labour's Michael McNamara but there won't be a Bhamjee-2 and Breen will retake his seat.
1 FF, 2 FG, 1 Ind (FF -1, Ind +1)

Cork East

Another constituency where FF face a complete wipeout. Sherlock and Stanton to be returned with Barry and Mulvihill seeing off sitting TD Michael Ahern and Ned's replacement Kevin O'Keefe.
2 FG, 2 Lab (FF -2, FG +1, Lab +1)

Cork North Central

An interesting fight here where rural and urban collide. The departure Noel O'Flynn as part of the FF seat saving strategy certainly improves the chances of Kelleher holding on. Labour look good for two with a balanced ticket of Lynch and Gilroy and FG should also successfully replace Bernard Allen. However, don't be surprised to see both ULA and SF poll relatively well and challenge for one of the Labour seats if Lynch and Gilroy don't manage their vote properly.
1 FF, 1 FG, 2 Lab (FF -1, Lab +1)

Cork North West

*YAWN*. Historically the most boring constituency in the country. Despite Ballincollig recently being moved into CNW, it is still a huge rural constituency where the Civil War parties will continue their dominance.
1 FF, 2 FG (FF -1, FG +1)

Cork South Central

From boring to very exciting. With Micheal Martin now the leader of FF his seat should be safe as will Ciaran Lynch due to his phenomenal work rate. FG should be good for two seats but which of their three candidates will lose out? I'd say Buttimer may replace Clune who will fight with Desmond of Labour for the final seat. Dan Boyle will yet again poll relatively strongly but fail to win a seat and his transfers will push Desmond over the line. Geography will play a strong role in this constituency between the town and harbour candidates.
1 FF, 2 FG, 2 Lab (FF -1, Lab +1)

Cork South West

Like its northern neighbour CSW is a fairly boring constituency with 2 FG and 1 FF returned for almost all elections since the 80s. Despite both sitting deputies retiring FG should be able to continue their fine tradition here. The interesting bit will be if Labour can win a seat that they haven't held in 30 years but my gut feeling is that FF should hold on through one of their candidates. Also interesting to note the Green candidate is Jennifer Sleeman who tried to organize the boycott of mass last Autumn.
1 FF, 2 FG (NC)

Kerry North/West Limerick

With the return of a Spring to the ballot paper for Labour and the addition of some FG friendly territory from Limerick things are not looking good for FF in this area. Ferris for SF should see off McEllistrim for the final seat.
1 FG, 1 Lab, 1 SF (FF -1, Lab +1)

Kerry South

At the time of John O'Donoghue's resignation I made a small charity bet with someone that he would top the poll. Now it looks like my money will be going to help some needy children. The Healy-Rae machine is still strong in the next generation and Jackie's last minute concessions to help pass the Finance Bill won't have hurt one bit. Sheahan safe for FG and Moloney will pass the transfer repellent Bull to grab the last seat. Could we see Kerry as a completely FF free zone?
1 FG, 1 Lab, 1 Ind (FF -1, Lab +1)

Limerick

The rural part of the county, this three seater will see Finucane picking off one of the sitting FF deputies with Collins likely to survive due to the party machine being strongly behind him.
1 FF, 2 FG (FF -1, FG +1)

Limerick City

The city has lost a seat in the redrawing of the boundaries. This spells an end to two seats for FF with Peter Power to be clobbered by O'Dea's amazing vote gathering ability. Beyond that it is hard to see any further lineup changes despite Noonan's increased profile (no chance of three seats!) and SF's Quinlivan's association with the O'Dea resignation.
1 FF, 2 FG, 1 Lab (FF -1)

Tipperary North

This is Lowry country and yet again the independent will top the poll. FG to hold Coonan's seat and Kelly will return from Europe and demolish Hoctor's base in Nenagh to take the third seat.
1 FG, 1 Lab, 1 Ind (FF -1, Lab +1)

Tipperary South

Tom Hayes will easily hold his seat. Mattie McGrath will take the FF Ind seat and Healy will just about see off Prendergast for the single left seat unless the Gilmore Gale picks up during the campaign.
1 FG, 1 ULA, 1 Ind (FF -2, ULA +1, Ind +1)

Waterford

Brian O'Shea's retirement and a strong push from left-wing independent John Halligan will make it almost impossible for Labour to increase from one to two seats. Instead FG will capitalize on the departure of Martin Cullen and take a second seat through Paudie Coffey. Kenneally will hold on for FF and lets say Ciara Conway takes the Labour seat (but I have no good reason for picking her over her running mate).
1 FF, 2 FG, 1 Lab (FF -1, FG +1)

Overall Figures

FF	8
FG	21
Lab	11
SF	1
ULA	1
Right Indo	4

Election Predictions - Leinster

Part 2 of the election predictions, this time looking at Leinster outside of Dublin. (Edit: I left out Wicklow in my initial posting - sorry!!)

Carlow-Kilkenny

McGuiness' maverick role will help return two FF seats bucking the national trend. FG will finally get their vote strategy right and also win the second seat with Anne Phelan picking off the Greens only rural seat.
2 FF, 2 FG, 1 Lab (FF -1, FG +1, Lab +1, G -1)

Kildare North

Effectively an extension of Dublin with many commuter towns, the FF vote will collapse here with both seats lost, one to the 2nd Labour candidate and the other to independent Catherine Murphy.
1 FG, 2 Lab, 1 Ind (FF -2, Lab +1, Ind +1)

Kildare South

Fine Gael will win back the seat that Alan Dukes used to hold at the expense of FF's O'Fearghail. Otherwise no change.
1 FF, 1 FG, 1 Lab (FF -1, FG +1)

Laois-Offaly

The big issue here is whether Brian Cowen will run or not. Assuming he does then FF should hold on to two of their three seats. With Enright retiring a new FG face will turn up in Leinster House along with a Sinn Féin seat for Brian Stanley.
2 FF, 2 FG, 1 SF (FF -1, SF +1)

Longford-Westmeath

The Mae Sexton saga makes this an interesting constituency to keep an eye on. Penrose will top the poll and FG will manage their vote to get McFadden and Bannon elected. The final seat will feature FF scrapping with Sexton but the combined votes of O'Rourke and Kelly will see one of them home.
1 FF, 2 FG, 1 Lab (FF -1, FG +1)

Louth

Ahern's retirement and Adams' arrival has spiced up Louth a bit more than usual. Blogged about it a while back but things have moved on since then. Now looks like no FF will be elected but Kirk will be returned as Ceann Comhairle. Two FG and Nash for Labour to join Gerry as the Louth representatives.
1 FF, 2 FG, 1 Lab, 1 SF (FF -1, FG +1, Lab +1)

Meath East

Dominic Hannigan to take one of the two current FF seats in more of the commuter-belt FF meltdown.
1 FF, 1 FG, 1 Lab (FF -1, Lab +1)

Meath West

English to top the poll for FG in the absence of Dempsey. Tobin to take one of the remaining seats for SF and then Labour, FF and second FG to duke it out for the final seat. Seems likely that Brady will hang on due to benefit of incumbency rather than being much of a TD.
1 FF, 1 FG, 1 SF (FF -1, SF +1)

Wexford

Howlin and both FG seats are safe. After that there will be one FF seat, probably Sean Connick. The final seat will go to the wire between FG, Lab and SF which I'm going to give to SF.
1 FF, 2 FG, 1 Lab, 1 SF (FF -1, SF +1)

Wicklow

Both FG and Labour are running a three candidate strategy to try and cover all the bases in this large constituency. Both should return two seats. FF's demise in the communter belt will continue with ex-FFer Behan holding off Dick Roche's challenge to take the remaining seat.
2 FG, 2 Lab, 1 Ind (FF -2, Lab +1, Ind +1)

Overall Figures

FF	11
FG	16
Lab	10
SF	4
Left Indo	1

Election Predictions - Dublin

With the Dáil about to be dissolved it is time to put my proverbial money where my mouth is and do a constituency by constituency guess at the election results. These will be split over 4 posts - Dublin, Leinster, Munster and Connacht/Ulster and finally a summary post with totals, predicted coalition and potential ministers. As with all predictions, take with a pinch of salt. So here we go!

Dublin Central

With Bertie retiring there are three sitting TDs looking for re-election. Joe Costello should take the 1st seat. After that things are less clear. There is definitely another left leaning seat there and one for either FF/FG. The final seat I see going left as there won't be enough transfers to get the other FF/FG candidate elected. I'll put Maureen O'Sullivan in as #2, Mary Fitzpatrick as #3 and Mary-Lou McDonald to keep Paschal Donohoe looking for Enda to keep a space for him in the Seanad.
1 FF, 1 Lab, 1 SF, 1 Ind (FF -1, SF +1)

Dublin Mid West

In Mary Harney's old stomping ground Joanna Tuffy may well be the only sitting TD returned. With the FF and PD tide gone out, Frances Fitzgerald and Derek Keating should mop up those rightish, middle class votes. While Paul Gogarty will not be elected, his transfers will decide it between Robert Dowds and Eoin O'Broin for the final seat which I'm going to call for Dowds.
2 FG, 2 Lab (FF -1, FG +2, Lab +1, G -1, Ind -1)

Dublin North

Splitting Swords in two has to be the stupidest thing the electoral boundary commission did in their last review. That said this is another area where the FF vote will collapse and neither of the sitting TDs will be returned. James Reilly and Brendan Ryan will head the field. Clare Daly of the Socialists under the ULA banner will poll strongly and take a seat and I expect Trevor Sargent to hang on for a rare positive story for the Greens.
1 FG, 1 Lab, 1 G, 1 ULA (FF -2, Lab +1, ULA +1)

Dublin North Central

One of the easier constituencies to predict, Seán Haughey will lose his seat to Aodhan O'Riordan with the others holding firm. Richard Bruton's surplus won't be very big at all as the anti-Enda feeling in Dublin will stop Naoise O'Muirí being at the races.
1 FG, 1 Lab, 1 Ind (FF -1, Lab +1)

Dublin North East

Tommy Broughan and Terence Flanagan should be safely home here. The final seat will depend on whether Larry O'Toole managed to hang on to the core SF team when Killian Forde moved to Labour. I'm going to give the seat the Seán Kenny at the moment but it will be very tight.
1 FG, 2 Lab (FF -1, Lab +1)

Dublin North West

The final three seater in the North of the city. With Noel Ahern retiring Pat Carey's chances of hanging on to his seat have been given a major boost. It seems insane for FG to be running two candidates and would seem to rule them out of wining a seat. Róisín Shortall will top the poll but will not have enough to take in a running mate leaving Dessie Ellis of SF to take the final seat without getting near the quota.
1 FF, 1 Lab, 1 SF (FF -1, SF +1)

Dublin South

Sprawling, liberal and volatile, Dublin South is always entertaining especially with Shane Ross and Peter Matthews now joining the fray. FG should be good for two seats despite the George Lee debacle but Ross has killed off any chance of a third seat for them. Labour, running the same ticket as last time, will have Alex White comfortably elected. The final seat will be a battle royale between Maria Corrigan, Aidan Cullhane and Eamon Ryan and will be decided by a handful of votes. If I was a betting man, I'd put my money on Corrigan holding on.
1 FF, 2 FG, 1 Lab, 1 Ind (FF -1, Lab +1, G -1, Ind +1)

Dublin South Central

The most left leaning constituency in the country, this will not be pleasant for FF or much better for FG unless a heavy-weight parachute (an oxymoron if ever there was) is found. Labour will definitely take two, SF will hold. Joan Collins of the ULA will win a seat and if Labour can manage their vote successfully, transfers from FG and FF should see them pick up the final seat.
3 Lab, 1 SF, 1 ULA (FF -2, FG -1, Lab +2, ULA +1)

Dublin South East

This is where I vote and I've blogged about it before calling it Quinn, Humphries, Creighton and Andrews. Since then I have seen nothing that has changed my mind about the result.
1 FF, 1 FG, 2 Lab (Lab +1, G -1)

Dublin South West

Pat Rabbitte to top the poll with Brian Hayes doing well in the Templeogue end of the constituency. SF's Sean Crowe will also take a seat leaving the final spot for the two incumbent FF and Eamonn Maloney of Labour to fight over. Based on the current low polling of FF I'd say Maloney will take it.
1 FG, 2 Lab, 1 SF (FF -2, Lab +1, SF +1)

Dublin West

Up from a three to a four seater, before the FF leadership debacle this would have been the easiest constituency in the country to predict with the three sitting TDs returned along with Joe Higgins for the ULA. However, after Lenihan's poor showing in the leadership battle, the door is now open for Pat Nulty to challenge for the final seat. However, I don't see it leading to a second seat for Labour.
1 FF, 1 FG, 1 Lab, 1 ULA (ULA +1)

Dun Laoghaire

Down from five to four seats, this is pretty much the exact opposite of Dublin West - it could go any direction. Assuming both FF TDs stay on the ballot paper, Gilmore will top the poll. Sean Barrett will take the FG seat and between them the FFers should have a quota which will see Hanafin elected when Andrews is eliminated. Gilmore's surplus should bump Ivana Bacik alongside Richard Boyd-Barrett and so Cuffe's votes will decide the final seat which I'm giving to Bacik.
1 FF, 1 FG, 2 Lab (FF -1, Lab +1, G -1)

Overall Figures

FF	6
FG	11
Lab	19
SF	4
Green	1
ULA	3
Left Indo	2
Right Indo	1

Confidence versus Finance

I've been abroad for a few days and have missed out on so much politics it's not funny. Between Brian Cowen resigning and then the Greens leaving government I should vow to never leave the country again. Then again, if my absence in any small way helped bring about these events I would have no problem in spending another extended weekend in Paris. (This might be a case of the correlation does not imply causation fallacy.)

The big thing this evening is the agreed timetable for the finance bill and an early election, now probably 25th February. This comes at the expense of Labour giving up on their motion of no confidence and all other Dáil business being suspended so the bill will be sent to the Seanad on Friday. Any amendments from the upper house will be passed either in an emergency Dáil session on Saturday or else first thing on Tuesday week before Cowen finally heads up to the Áras to dissolve the Dáil and officially start the election race.

It is important to note that while Fine Gael and Labour are agreeing to this timetable, neither party will be voting in favour of the provisions of the bill. This role will strictly be reserved for the Greens and the pair of independent TDs along with the remains of Fianna Fáil. If the motion of no confidence was debated tomorrow and Wednesday, it would be defeated as the Greens have said they want the finance bill passed. This would drag out the life of the Dáil for another few weeks up, on the 11th March election date timetable.

Nothing in the finance bill cannot be reversed or modified by the incoming government. In my view this compromise is better than another few weeks of farce in the Dáil allowing Fianna Fáil's new leader to settle in and get up a head of steam before the election. This timescale brings about an election as soon as possible and while it does leave a bit of a nasty taste to have this finance bill passed, the alternative is far, far worse.