Duty done

So that's my democratic duty definitely finished for this year. I hit the polling station in Harold's Cross at about 7:20 this morning on my way in to work. Turns out I was the 3rd punter to come through the door so definitely not what you'd call brisk.

On the two referenda I quickly marked the No box on both. I had decided over a week ago that I wasn't really in favour of McCarthyite Star Kangaroo Chambers so that was an easy one. The Judicial Pay issue was a bit more tricky as part of me feels that those pompus gits in wigs deserve to be taken down a notch or two. However, after much mulling over, I reckoned this was not the approach that the state should take. There are just too many potentials for abuse in the wording presented.

For the Áras, it was a no brainer putting 1 beside Michael D's name. After that I struggled for a while before putting 2 opposite Norris and 3 for McGuinness. Next came Mitchel and Davis. Finally, though it pained me hugely, I put Dana somewhere other than bottom of the list to reserve that special place for Sean Gallagher.

With that done, the question is what's next for my adventures in the Rosary Pastoral Centre. It would be nice to have a look at the Children's Referendum or perhaps the removal of Blasphemy from the Bunreacht. Or perhaps I will have to wait for the outcome of the promised Constitutional Convention that might redraft the whole thing. Any which way, I look forward to my next visit to the polling booth.

The Aras so far

After all the excitement of the nomination process, especially the last minute additions of Dana and Norris to the ballot paper, the actual Áras campaign has been fairly boring. Despite all the debates, newspaper columns and comment the election is pretty much going as predicted. For a position that has almost no power or freedom, an awful lot of energy (mostly in the form of hot air) has gone into the campaign already.

Michael D Higgins is playing the safe pair of hands game and doing it well. Hasn't put a foot wrong and has impressed in both the Late Late and TV3 debates. The posters are a bit odd to my mind and standing on the box on the Vincent Browne debate was hilarious, but otherwise a solid showing so far.

Gay Mitchell on the other hand, as the candidate of the party with over twice the support of any other, has been a disaster. You'd think that after the parliamentary party picked Mitchell over Mairead McGuinness and Pat Cox that they'd go out and mobilize the troops but it doesn't seem to be working at all.

The other daft tactic of Mitchell's is the relentless attacks on Martin McGuinness. All it is doing is solidifying McGuinness' base, especially the young, unemployed males who already don't like FG. McGuinness will poll a respectable 18%-20% but won't have the transfers to pull off the win.

Mary Davis has finally been shown up as the fake that she is. Her relentless pushing of her work in the voluntary sector was shattered by publishing her P60. Her involvement in various public and private boards didn't help much either. And the less said about the Special K posters the better.

Sean Gallagher has impressed me more than I expected. He gives fairly straight answers to questions put. However, the huge issue of his close association with Fianna Fáil will still be his downfall. It's not like he was just a member of a local Cumman. He was on the national executive and being touted as a potential Dáil candidate for the General Election earlier this year.

Dana, despite her relentless constitution waving, is also a spent force. While she will act as a rallying point to the Eurosceptics, her general lack of understanding of the role of President as well as her general batyness will see her languishing in the 5% region.

And that leaves us with David Norris or the Comeback Kid as he has taken to calling himself. My opinion and position on him hasn't changed since the summer. I still think there are too many unanswered questions and his demeanour and behaviour in the two TV debates have not impressed me one bit. He will pull in a respectable vote, possibly fourth on 1st preferences but won't be there at the business end of the count.

So that's it. I'm fed up with #aras11 already. I can't wait for the next two weeks to pass and then I'll vote and be done with it. Unless something amazing happens I'm not going to post about it again until the votes are counted.

In fact the best thing about this election is the series of videos being posted on Youtube by Cutbacks2010. See below for an example.

Nomination confusion

I'm slightly confused about this whole County/City Council nomination process for the Presidential Election. Today in Carlow motions to nominate David Norris and Dana Rosemary Scallon were tabled. From the reports it seems as though the Norris motion was tied 5-5 and then rejected by the chair using the casting vote. Then Dana's nomination was passed. So far, so good.

But here's where my confusion comes in. What would have happened if the chair had voted in favour of Norris? Would Dana's motion then have been voted upon? The constitution is very clear that each nominating body or oireachtas member can support only one candidacy. Would they have nominated the candidate whose motion received the most support? Or the first one that was passed? If the latter, then how is the order of hearing motions decided - is it first come, first served or are lots drawn?

I'm sure that somewhere in the County Manager's rule book all this is made clear but I haven't been able to find a clear answer on this. Anyone got any pointers?

Bashing McGuinness

Since Martin McGuinness joined the race to the Áras, most of the commentary has surrounded his less than squeaky clean past. This has come from the media, bloggers and also the political arena itself. The latest is Fintan O'Toole's piece in today's Irish Times where he suggests McGuinness could be liable for war crimes.

I'm no fan of McGuinness and certainly won't be voting for him. The farce that is Northern politics has shown him to be fairly inept in an executive role. The actions of Sinn Féin in government up North have shown them to be a fairly right-wing, conservative party, quite at odds with the image they try to portray down here. His following Gerry Adams into southern politics also shows either a contempt for people who have worked hard for SF in the Republic or an effective evacuation of Stormont by the heavy hitters.

However, I strongly object to people relentlessly harping back to McGuinness' past involvement in the IRA from the 70s onwards. Sure, he carried out some pretty awful acts and refused to recognise the authority of the Irish Courts. But when we down south voted 94% in favour of the Good Friday Agreement, we effectively said that we accept that there was a war being fought, but that now we were entering the peace and that we were drawing a line in the sand. Therefore we have to live with our decision and allow those combatants to re-enter normal society and that includes electoral politics.

And then there were four, no five, no six, no seven

The presidential election has certainly sparked to life again in the last few days. Firstly Davis and Gallagher rustled up the requisite number of councils. Then Norris started playing the Lanigan's Ball game - in then out then in again. Next Fianna Fáil get back in the game with rumours of Lamhrás Ó Murchú planning a run. The just this afternoon news is leaked that Martin McGuinness will be the Sinn Féin candidate. Phew! Lets look at each of these bits one at a time.

Early on in the week both Mary Davis and Sean Gallagher managed to secure nominations from at least four county or city councils, making them the third and fourth official candidates on the ballot paper after Gay Mitchell and Michael D Higgins. Not content with four nominations, Davis continued to have motions of support passed ending up with around 10. To my mind this was a bit of a risky move. While supporters will argue that it shows she has the backing of people from around the country, I think that it will be more played as a blocking move, using up nominations so that other candidates can't enter the race. This is certainly the line that Gallagher took, requesting that motions to support him be removed from the agenda at other council meetings once he had his four secured.

The David Norris re-appeared. We all know how his previous exit from the race went (here and here) so I am hugely surprised that he is trying to come back. True, he finished his speech with the phrase "fail better" but I wasn't really expecting him to prove it so quickly. The issues surrounding his withdrawal haven't changed or gone away. I am also pretty sure that a good number of his previous Oireachtas supporters have left him, not to mention his campaign staff. He also returned all his campaign finances and so is starting from scratch. I don't expect to see his name on the ballot paper come polling day.

Micheal Martin really can't win on this one. Having decided to not put forward an official Fianna Fáil candidate, he should have issued an edict that TDs and Senators were to not get involved in the nomination game. However, he left the door open and talk started about FF members nominating someone who wouldn't be an FF candidate. Then to top it all off, Lamhrás Ó Murchú, the FF Senator who lost the whip over the civil partnership bill last year, has indicated a desire and willingness to stand. Of all the people FF could put up, Ó Cuív and Crowley being the obvious choices, Ó Murchú is pretty much near the bottom of the list. FF should be just concentrating on the Dublin West by election and scoring points against the government in the run up to the budget.

Our latest entry to the field is the Deputy First Minister from the North, Martin McGuinness. He is the best choice they have since Pearse Doherty doesn't meet the age requirement. Of course, SF only have 17 Oireachtas members so there are three others signing his papers. I'm guessing they'll be from the ranks of the ULA. Of course the announcement had to be delayed until today so McGuinness can apply for the 6 week sabbatical from being DFM, much as Peter Robinson did during the UK General Election. It will be very interesting to see how both the media and the other parties treat the entry of SF into the race. Given the absolute destruction that was rained down on Norris I'm looking forward to seeing a similar level of investigation into McGuinness. I don't expect him to win, but they will poll a respectable 12%-15% which may put them third on the first count. I think they would count that as a victory, especially given the lack of an official FF candidate.

The continuing Norris saga

So as expected, TDs who had previously committed to supporting David Norris have now started to withdraw support. Finian McGrath led the charge, quickly followed by John Halligan and Thomas Pringle. It really does appear as if the campaign is now in its final days or even hours. Since my last blog post on Saturday night a few more issues have come up that I want to address.

One comment suggested that I was holding Norris to a higher standard than any of the other candidates. To quote Brian Lenihan, I don't accept that at all. The president is the leading citizen of the country and has to be held to a higher standard. I mentioned Bobby Molloy's and Kathleen Lynch's stupid interventions previously. Add to that list Charlie Flanagan, Tony Kileen and even Trevor Sargent who did equally stupid things. But none of them are running for President. If Mary Davis, Sean Gallagher or MDH made equally ill-advised submissions to courts then I'd be taking them to task also.

And then there's Gay Mitchell. He is another person who made a submission to a court. While I haven't seen the original document, I gather that it was to a court in Florida asking for a death sentence to be commuted to life imprisonment for a man convicted of a double murder in pursuit of his anti-abortion agenda. This was done while Mitchell was Fine Gael Foreign Affairs spokesman. This again is interference in the judicial affairs of a foreign state and is again unacceptable unless it is FG policy to plea for clemency in every capital case. But I doubt it is. This case played to Mitchell's religious right, Iona Institute buddies and so the letter was sent.

There is still the ongoing Zionist agenda stuff doing the rounds too. Occam's razor kicks in at some point. The case was over ten years ago, reported on in newspapers and Norris has even spoken about it on radio interviews. It doesn't take the Illuminati to hide his submission for a decade and a half before releasing it at the right moment. It was out there waiting to be found but nobody went looking. Blame lazy journalism, blame lack of interest, but don't channel Jim Corr and invent a worldwide conspiracy against Norris.

Finally, if Norris withdraws, that puts 15 nominations back in play. Will there be another candidate put forward by that group? Or by the ULA/SF? Except that I think his health might get in the way I'd make an approach to Christy Moore. He's a strong lefty, republican but in a clean way and extremely popular across the country. That would certainly put the cat amongst the political pigeons.

PS - thanks to all for reading. Previous blog post was my 2nd most read post in almost two years of this carry on.

Norris Implosion

Update Sunday morning: Apologies if you have been led here by a Fox News style tag. I would never claim to be fair or balanced, more a shoot from the hip kinda person. I am not a journalist and am just writing what I think at any given moment. Feel free to disagree with me, you certainly won't be the first to do so!

Only a few weeks ago I was convinced that David Norris would get his nomination sorted out and appear on the ballot for the Presidential Election in October. How times have changed, especially in the last 24 hours. Following the no show at Magill, the resignation of key members of staff and finally the release of the letter to the Israeli court David Norris' plans to become Uachtarán na hÉireann have been well and truly scuppered.

Ignoring the whole Zionist conspiracy angle which I don't buy into at all, especially the Shatter as sleeper Mossad agent (!!) bit, there are a few points worth noting in this sorry tale.

Firstly, Norris' use of official Seanad paper in his letter was wrong, especially when he used his membership of the Foreign Affairs Committee to try to add to the importance of his message. He was not acting on behalf of the Committee and, honestly, not really acting in the interests of his electorate either. While the Bobby Molloy and Kathleen Lynch stories, probably two amongst many other such instances, show that politicians make unwise representations but the standard for being President has to be above these sorts of actions.

Secondly, he seems to be trying to come up with mitigating circumstances for statutory rape. Whatever about our morals and thoughts on the age of consent, the law in Israel at the time was pretty clear. It had a small set of conditions which had to be met to allow sex with someone underage one of which was a closeness in age. In this case there was about 20 years between the two parties. Therefore the exception didn't apply and Yizhak was found pleaded guilty. Norris' fourth point is the most galling where he tries to claim that there is a difference between hetero and homosexual relations that excuse this act. I'm sorry, but in no circumstances is it acceptable for someone in their mid thirties to be carrying on with a 15 year old. That's me and a girl who has just done the Junior Cert. No way, end of.

Thirdly, he should have been up front with his own team about this issue from day one. I have not been impressed with much of the Norris campaign so far - it seems fairly disorganized and not really prepared to take on the main parties. For Norris to leave this timebomb hidden from his own staff is crazy. If they had the information they could have been on top of the story. Instead they rightly called it a day. I certainly don't blame them if this is the sort of issues are going to be dumped on you.

It will also be interesting to see what happens to the 15 names that have already committed to nominating him. So far I have only seen Senator John Crown come out and say that he is still willing to sign his papers. Like his campaign team, his Oireachtas colleagues should have been treated with a bit more respect. Having heard the retreat being sounded by Fianna Fáil on Saturday View today, Norris' prospects of getting the magic twenty are disappearing rapidly.

I don't want this to turn into an anti-Norris rant. I have met David on several occasions when our paths crossed, mainly with the Carmichael Centre for Voluntary Groups and he has always been extremely supportive of their work. During the Seanad election campaign we met a couple of times and even though we were supposed rivals he always had a kind word of encouragement. As a person he is extremely likable, but as a President I now have serious doubts. There are too many unanswered questions and probably more to come out.

Norris' Nomination

People are getting all up in arms about David Norris not getting a nomination to run for President. I just don't get it. He'll have no problem landing himself on the ballot paper through his friends and acquaintances in Leinster House.

This is the pool he is fishing in.

• 3 - TCD Senators (Norris, Bacik, Barrett)
  
• 3 - NUI Senators (Quinn, Mullen, Crown)
  
• 7 - Endapendents (Coghlan, Mac Conghail, McAleese, O'Brien, O'Donnell, Van Turnhout, Zappone)
  
• 12 - Dáil Independents (all except Lowry and Healy-Rae)
  
• 5 - ULA TDs (Boyd Barrett, Collins, Daly, Higgins, Healy)
  

That makes 30 by my count. If Sinn Féin decide not to contest the election then its even easier as their 17 Oireachtas members can be called into action. And if the worst comes to the worst I can easily see Micheál Martin sending a few of the least offensive members of his parliamentary party off to sign the papers. The spin will be that Fianna Fáil are not endorsing his candidacy, just enabling democracy. The irony is not lost after FF's steadfast refusal to hold by-elections in the previous Dáil.

The touring of the country to collect Council nominations is a PR move to keep his name and campaign in the spotlight. That makes it a good move, but give over with the crocodile tears when nasty, bigoted, homophobic councils don't vote to nominate him or refuse to entertain the roadshow.

Taking a break

I've decided to take a bit of a break from blogging. The last 6 months have been fairly hectic what with the general election and then my own shenanigans with the Seanad election. I've partially burned out on politics and so need to charge up the batteries again. Luckily I'm off on holidays for a few weeks soon which should get me back in the zone. We'll pick up at some point during the silly season.

Just a few minor thoughts on recent topics before I go.

David Norris

The current smear campaign being waged against David Norris is disgusting. When people like John Waters and David Quinn come out supporting the attacks it only makes me more sure that it is a load of dirty tricks. While I will be voting for Michael D Higgins in the Presidential election I am now more certain than ever that Norris will be getting my number 2.

We the Citizens

I went to the We the Citizens event on Wednesday night in Tallaght. While skeptical about anything of great import coming from the events it was good to have a round table discussion with a group of strangers. The event was well organized with a facilitator at each table to keep the conversation on track and make sure it wasn't dominated by a few loud voices.

One thing I think has worked in their favour is the timing. Initially they had hoped to report before the general election in early 2012 but obviously that didn't come to pass. However, with the election there was a sense of the air being cleared and we didn't spend hours giving out about Cowen, Lenihan and the banks. A lot more positive and constructive than it might have been on the original timetable.

Tweet Up

The politics twonks also held a tweetup last Thursday night. As usual, great fun was had debating the ills of the country. It was a bit weird not being on the offensive against the government. Was also nice to meet a few new people as well as the old regulars and there are plans to hold another session towards the end of the summer.

Ignite

On Wednesday this week I'll be giving a talk at the Ignite Dublin session being held in the Science Gallery. These talks are on any topic, last for 5 minutes and have 20 slides that advance every 15 seconds. Considering my lecture overheads normally proceed at the rate of one every 5-8 minutes this is quite a challenge. I have about 10 of the slides done but amn't sure what else to cover. If all else fails I can always repeat! Oh, and the title of my talk is something like "How to (un)successfully run a Seanad election campaign on no money and even less planning" so it is somewhat politically focused.

Water Charges

Phil Hogan has put water charges firmly back on the agenda. As usual Nama Wine Lake were well ahead of the curve with their fairytale. But it is true that water charges, like most consumption and flat taxes, are regressive and in this case particularly expensive to gear up for. Another sop to the building industry?

JLCs

The other major bit of right-wing kite flying being done by the blue side of the coalition is the carry-on by Richard Bruton with the JLCs. Again the work has been done Michael Taft and others on the figures but attacking, yet again, those on extremely low levels of pay is daft. All it does is further reduce domestic demand which has a knock on effect of laying off even more people who's jobs are on the minimum wage or a rate agreed in a JLC. People at the bottom spend to survive - reducing their disposable income just continues the cycle of depression and cuts.


Think that's about it. See you all in a little while. I'll still be hanging out on Twitter if you need to find me.