Campaign Diary Days 15 and 16 - Two more Debates

I have a long standing (16 years at this stage!) commitment on Wednesday evenings and so what is midweek for most is my evening off from the political scene. So it was with some disappointment that I realized I was going to miss the diospóireacht as Gaeilge on TG4 between the three main leaders. By all accounts it was far better than Monday's debate. With the figures showing up to half a million people watched at least part of one of the two broadcasts, it shows that holding a debate in Irish, when all three leaders are able to speak the language, is a good idea.

Last night there was a far more parochial debate held in the Town Hall in Rathmines. Chaired by Aine Lawlor, the event was well attended by both politicians and the public. Due to a meeting in Ringsend about the incinerator, not all candidates were there at the start but by the end only Ruairi Quinn (who had sent apologies) and Chris Andrews were the only representatives of the main parties to not attend.

The format allowed each candidate to give a 5 minute pitch which took about an hour. With so many independents running in Dublin South East this was a great opportunity allow them to differentiate themselves from the rest of the field. Most impressive were Paul Sommerville, Hugh Sheehy and, surprisingly to me, Dylan Haskins. On the other end of the scale I wouldn't have rated James Coyle or Peadar O'Ceallaigh highly on the basis of their performance. Mannix Flynn went off on his usual tirade against the system which having heard it several times before, did nothing for me. Of the party representatives, Annette Mooney did well as did John Gormley despite facing a fairly hostile crowd. Eoghan Murphy talked in endless platitudes and aspirations and won't have won over much from Lucinda Creighton's support base.

The second hour was taken up with questions and statements from the floor with responses from various panel members. The opening twenty minutes or so was taken up with the closure of the cancer care in St Luke's hospital. While obviously an important issue locally, with most of the candidates running on national issues Aine Lawlor had her work cut out moving the debate on to other topics. Once over the first hurdle the questions came thick and fast touching on welfare and disability cuts, the quango cull, Croke Park and political reform.

One man, who I have seen at various meetings before, tried to make a big issue out of immigration but none of the candidates were interested and in fact Sheehy took him on, stating that many of his co-workers, while not Irish, were hard working, tax payers and should be welcomed here. There was also a frank exchange on FG's position on trade unions with Creighton getting in all her talking points on Jack O'Connor and David Begg.

The meeting eventually finished up just after 10:30 by which stage most of the 200 or so in the room were glad to leave and get some fresh air. Overall it was a most enjoyable evening and certainly sorted out the ranking of all the independents in my mind. Well done to the Rathmines Initiative for arranging the event.

Campaign Diary - Days 1 and 2

Those who are regular readers will note that every so often I do a bit of analysis on opinion polls. However, three polls released within 24 hours is getting a bit much. Overall the polls show FG in early-mid 30s, Lab early 20s, FF mid teens with SF a little bit behind with Others making up the difference. What worries me slightly about the spate of polls is that we end up moving to the American style of politics where parties are continually chasing the polling figures and reacting to public opinion. While there will always be a bit of that, Irish politics has tended to be a bit more policy and ideology based.

A winter election was always going to bring bad weather but I had hoped it would hold off for a little while longer. While I have never been involved in the postering part of the campaign, it can't be fun to be up a ladder in the wind and rain that rolled in today. This evening I was designated as the coordinator of the leaflet drop in the Rathgar area. At about 6 the rain really started pouring down and I was sorely tempted to cancel the event. However we braved the elements and our team of 5 hardy souls hit about 70% of our designated areas before the brewing storm got the better of us.

It doesn't seem to be going well for constituency rival Chris Andrews on the legal use of a vehice front. After being clamped on the afternoon of the Dáil dissolution, this evening while trudging up Rathgar Avenue a van decked out in FF logos and Chris' face on the side came racing down without a single light on. Luckily the traffic coming the other direction were blinded by Chris' smile and forced to stop before careening into the Andrewsmobile.

Depending on the options on post-work pints tomorrow, my next outing on the doors will be down in Ringsend tomorrow evening or Saturday morning before cheering on Ireland in the 6 Nations against Italy.

Campaign Diary - Day minus 1

So the day is almost upon us. Posters have been printed and teams are ready to clamber up every lamppost in the country. The phony war is almost over and we can go into overdrive for the next 3 odd weeks trying to get our preferred candidates elected.

In a way, it almost feels anti-climatic. For more than a year now the government has been wobbling from one crisis to the next and at each stage we on the opposition side have been calling for them to go to the country. Now that Cowen is about to do that, after the stage-managed events in Leinster House tomorrow, it feels a little bit flat. We were all hoping that they'd go out with a bang, instead a slow-motion implosion over the last two months has made it difficult to get hyped up. However, once the starting gun is fired all that will go and it will be all hands to the pump.

Of course the campaign has really be underway for the last few months. We have been leafleting and canvassing steadily since the selection convention last May, partly on local issues with the councillors but also as an exercise in getting the name out for the new candidate Kevin Humphries in the Pembroke-Rathmines ward where he may not be as well known. Tonight we have the final pre-election canvass and leaflet drop in Rathmines followed by a branch meeting to rally the troops for the coming weeks.

The thing that is nice about politics in Ireland is that no matter how vitriolic the fighting between the parties gets on the national stage, at a local level things always remain cordial. Groups of canvassers that meet will co-ordinate to not knock at the same doors one after the other. Warnings of rabid dogs (and rabid voters!) are exchanged and pints will be drunk together in the local pubs. We all recognize that we have to live together in the same areas after the election so best off not being a complete jerk.

To all who will be wearing out the shoe leather over the next month, good luck. It's going to be tough but it's ultimately rewarding whether you win or lose.

Crossing the Floor

In most modern parliaments there are examples of members crossing the floor to join a rival party on some point of principle. In Ireland, due to strict party discipline, this is a rare occurance. In fact apart from the political wanderings of Conor Cruise O'Brien and Michael O'Leary bailing from Labour to Fine Gael, I can't think of any other changes that didn't involve whole parties splitting, forming or merging.

So it was with some shock that I read some of Chris Andrews' tweets from last night

• FG are not getting the traction in the polls because people see little difference between FF and FG. A merger makes sense to me
  
• If people were serious it shouldn't take long. I believe there is as much difference within FF as there is between FF and FG
  
• It's all pretty much speculation because it's unlikely to happen. Maybe after next election is would be considered.It's a big leap
  

Here is an elected FF politician finally admitting something that we have all known for a long time - that there is no fundamental difference between the two centre-right, Civil War parties. Sure, the personnel in FG might be a bit more straight edged and FF a bit more rough around the edges, but from a policy and ethos point of view they're not that far apart. Of course Chris, as a Dublin South East TD, is facing a tough battle to retain his seat whenever the next election comes around. As I posted over a year ago DSE is going to be tough for the government parties. Based on the most recent poll with FF on 18% nationally, they must be somewhere near 10% and transfer toxic in DSE. At the moment I'm going to stick with my prediction of 2Lab, 1FG and 1FF but that is now extremely shaky - could be a second FG.

If Chris does cross the floor it will make for an interesting FG selection convention. With Lucinda Creighton as a sitting deputy, Eoghan Murphy pushing hard with seemingly endless resources behind him and the specter of Michael McDowell's return to electoral politics looming over them, this four way battle would put the Labour DSE in-fighting of earlier in the year in the ha'penny place. I'm sure Phoenix magazine would have a field day.

DSE conventions

Last night the Labour party in Dublin South East selected two candidates to contest the next general election, sometime between now and June 2012. Due to the determinations of the Candidate Selection Board there were two separate conventions held, one for Pembroke-Rathmines where Ruairi Quinn was selected unopposed, and another for South-East Inner City where Kevin Humphreys beat Ivana Bacik. Each convention also discussed a motion disagreeing with splitting the constituency in two and the motions were passed in both wards.

All throughout the process I have been opposed to the split conventions as they effectively disenfranchised about 70% of the membership in the constituency. By my reckoning the same outcome would have been achieved by holding a standard, open selection vote and the process would have been far less acrimonious and not split the membership in such a divisive manner. It is going to take a bit of work to heal the wounds of the last few months. However, a good start along the path to reconciliation was made in the bar of Bewley's Hotel last night.

The motions are not binding on the Executive Board or Organisation Committee, but it should send a clear message that the ordinary membership was not happy with the arrangements. It might make the party think a bit more deeply when it comes to other selection conventions where a split is being considered. If some lessons are learned then the debates, emails and phonecalls will not have been in vain.

PS, Dear Phoenix, if you want more details, please forward a brown envelope filled with unmarked €20 notes. X series notes preferred.

Candidates by Consensus

This evening is the AGM of the Dublin South East Constituency Council of the Labour party at which the executive officers for 2010 will be elected. I have been nominated for the position of Treasurer, which like all bar one of the positions, is uncontested. In fact the only contested position is that of Assistant Secretary, and one of the candidates has indicated that he doesn't want to stand effectively leaving no election to be held for the entire constituency organisation.

This got me thinking about other organisations that I have been involved in and how their committees and boards are filled. As a student I was quite involved in several societies, the Students' Union and the Central Societies Committee but in all my involvement I only had to face a ballot three times - once for auditor of the Maths Society which I lost, then joining the executive of the CSC where I was elected 5th out of 8 positions and the following year heading the poll for ordinary exec members in CSC. For every other role I was elected unopposed or re-appointed as the incumbent.

It really appears to me that in most organisations, the appointment of officers is one part stitch up by inner cabal and one part grabbing anyone who appears even slightly interested in being involved. I would have thought in a political group like a Constituency Council there would at least be more than 10 people wanting to get more involved but it seems that even there apathy holds strong.

In fact the same could also be said of selection conventions for candidates. In the European election there was no convention as the sitting MEP wanted to run again and the organisation deemed only one candidate should run. There was a bit of a scrap over the alternative list. For the locals, in Pembroke-Rathmines the three existing Councillors all stood again and nobody thought to challenge at the convention stage. In SEIC, where there was only one existing Councillor, only one name was put forward after the organisation determined that a two candidate strategy was to be followed.

Between now and June there will more than likely be two selection conventions. The first will pick two candidates for the next General Election of whom one will be the incumbent Ruairí Quinn. Other names that could be put forward include Bacik, Humphries and Quinn but will the membership actually end up voting? The second will chose a candidate for the Mayor of Dublin election which may happen in June. Following Dermot Lacey's self promotion in the last week or so, it will be interesting to see if any other name is put forward to be the party's candidate - I wouldn't hold my breath.

Motions for debate

The Rathmines branch is semi-famous for proposing motions to annual conference that get ignored by the DSE constituency council under some section of standing orders. To be absolutely sure that the CC have to at least consider our proposed motion this year we have started the ball rolling already. At the branch meeting on Monday the following three topics were put forward

1. Implementation of the Kenny report
2. Lowering voting age to 16 and extending franchise in General Elections
3. Secularisation of the education system

The first refers to the report written by Justice Kenny in the early 70s which proposed limits on speculation on land. This report has been ignored by every government since its publication. Had it been implemented in full it can be argued that the property bubble of 1999-2007 would never have happened. While it is still good policy, I'm of the opinion that it is a bit like closing the barn door after the horse has bolted. I also think that implementing Kenny is already party policy and so a motion on it might be a bit of a waste.

The second motion is in two parts. Firstly it proposes that we follow Austria and parts of Germany in lowering the voting age to 16 and secondly to allow all EU citizens normally resident in the state to vote in General Elections. I have blogged on this before so no need to go into much detail here except to say no taxation without representation and no representation without taxation.

The third motion proposed that the state finally takes control of all eduction that is funded by the tax payer. This arose from two different issues, firstly the additional grants given to minority religious schools, the second to stop the practice of rejecting children from local national schools because they haven't been baptised in the Catholic church in favour of those that have. The debate was fairly heated at times and no wording was agreed on but it looks likely that some motion on this topic will be forwarded to the CC for consideration as the Constituency motion to conference in April.

Dublin South East predictions

There may be an election next month, or maybe not for the next 30 months but it is always fun to examine the state of the parties in your local constituency and guess what might happen at the next election. Luckily since the local elections happened not so long ago there is some very useful data as to which parties polled well and where from the tally that was carried out on the morning of the count.

At some stage in the future I might have a go at breaking down the various boxes in the two wards (Pembroke-Rathmines and South East Inner City) but for the moment I'm just going to work from totals for parties.

Firstly let's look at the potential candidates for each party

Fianna Fáil have one sitting TD, Chris Andrews who was joined in the last general election by Jim O'Callaghan as the party ticket. In the locals the three candidates in PR just managed to poll a quota between them with O'Callaghan and Donnelly polling well ahead of Tubridy. In SEIC, FF polled less than half a quota between three candidates. With Donnelly retired from public life it seems as though the most likely lineup is the same as before. The only alternative is that with FF polling so poorly in the Dublin region they decide to run a single candidate in which case it will surely be the sitting TD rather than his arch-rival the Councillor.

Fine Gael's Lucinda Creighton easily won back a seat for FG in the 2007 general election as the sole candidate for the party. In the locals FG's Catherine Noone polled just over 13% in SEIC and managed to hang on to beat Daithi Doolin for the last seat. In PR, the more traditional FG heartland, the party polled just over 34% with young tyro Eoghan Murphy pulling ahead of the pack to be elected on the first count. The remaining two candidates duked it out for the final seat with Edie Wynne being elected in the early hours of the morning. One has to assume that DSE is on the FG target list as somewhere to pick up a second seat if they are serious about leading the next government. However, will Creighton want a younger, brasher candidate alongside her, or will she want to put forward an older, more experienced running mate? I would guess that Murphy will be chosen by the local organisation as the second name.

Labour have held a seat in DSE on and off since 1969, and continuously since 1982 with Ruairí Quinn. In the locals, Labour pulled off a remarkable result, netting five out of the ten seats, two in SEIC with 38% and three in PR with just 32%. DSE also has to be on Labour's hitlist for gains in the next general so a two candidate strategy is required. There will certainly be a Quinn on the ballot paper, either Ruairí or Oisín but surely not both. Kevin Humphreys polled exceedingly well in SEIC and must be regarded as likely to run as well. However, it remains to be seen if Ivana Bacik returns from her trip across the river. At the moment I would put the candidates as R Quinn and Humphreys.

John Gormley as leader of the Green Party will definitely be on the ballot paper despite the poor showing of Dave Robbins and Claire Wheeler in the locals. Sinn Fein had a disastrous local election with Daithi Doolan loosing his seat and somewhere around half of his vote - the boundaries of the wards changed substantially from 2004. In PR Sinn Fein hardly registered with less than 2% of the vote. Expect Doolin to be on the ballot. After that, Bryce Evans will probably be the PBP candidate and independent councillor, Mannix Flynn is also expected to throw his hat in the ring. There may also be additional single issue candidates who are unlikely to feature much in the end of the day. (In 2007 the bottom 6 candidates received fewer votes combined than the next lowest candidate.)

So based the above I'm predicting a 1st preference vote share something like

• FF - 16.5%
• FG - 27%
• Lab - 31.5%
• Green - 11%
• SF - 3%
• PBP - 3.5%
• Flynn - 7%
• Other - 0.5%

 The interesting transfer patterns to watch will be within FF (only about 50% at the locals) and whether the Greens become as transfer repellent as some are currently suggesting. There are certainly enough left leaning votes to take two seats, the question is will the second Labour candidate be ahead of Gormley at the time one of them is eliminated. Good vote management as shown by Labour in the locals should make this possible. Another possibility is that when the first FF candidate is eliminated, enough votes go to Gormley to push him ahead of the second FG candidate and the other FF. In that case it might be possible for Gormley to claim a third seat for the left at the expense of FF.

At the moment I am going to go for 2 Lab, 1 FG and a mighty battle between FF and G for the final seat with Andrews' name carrying him over the line, with Gormley's association with the incinerator and general anti-Green sentiment dragging him down.