Confidence tricks

This afternoon Labour announced that they were putting down a motion of no confidence in the government in their private members time on 25/26 of the month. This comes a few days after the Sinn Féin led Technical Group's motion of no confidence in the Taoiseach which would not be on the order of business until some time in March. This is a significant move for several reasons.

Firstly, in the normal course of events, a Government takes the motion on their time in the house, puts an amendment that turns it into a vote of confidence and then passes that. It does it as quickly as possible to stop the story from lingering on for ages. However, the Chief Whip, John Curran, has indicated that the motion will not be taken until Labour's private members time. This strongly suggests that he doesn't think he has the numbers to successfully amend the motion from a no confidence to confidence one.

Bear in mind that no matter what happens in the next week or so there will be an election in March or early April as the Greens are leaving once the Finance Bill is passed. There is a school of thought that the motion should have been held in reserve until the Finance Bill is passed and that would either force the Greens to leave before the Climate and Donations bills get passed or renege on their promise to depart. Even if they didn't leave the three by-elections have been promised for the 1st quarter 2011 anyway and once they have been won by opposition parties (1 each for FG, L and SF probably) the game is up.

The pressure is now heaped on the potential Fianna Fáil rebels as they have to decide soon what their course of action is. I am not sure what the procedures are for electing a new leader in FF but I'm assuming there is a period of time for nominations while the existing deputy leader takes charge in a temporary capacity. Now, as I said yesterday I actually don't care who is in charge of FF, but the timing of the coup and how it plays out makes for entertaining viewing. There are a few ways the next little while can play out. If I have missed some please post them in the comments section.

• Cowen goes up to the Áras over the weekend and dissolves the Dáil and we have a general election on 11th February or so. FF couldn't oust him in the middle of the campaign so Cowen would lead them into the election.
  
• FF circle the wagons, leave Cowen intact, and survive the motion. This forces the backbenchers such as Chris Andrews and John McGuinness, who have recently been distancing themselves from Government, to publicly back the Taoiseach.
  
• The heave proceeds but fails to oust Cowen. The Brutus character(s) (Martin, Hanafin or Lenihan) has to resign from Cabinet and this leaves a very damaged FF heading into the election. It also makes surviving the no confidence motion more difficult as the rebels may not vote to save Cowen.
  
• The heave succeeds and Coughlan becomes acting leader. Based on Lowry and JHR's statements about not supporting another FF Taoiseach, Cowen has to stay in the job. The motion of confidence then requires FF TDs who voted against Cowen being in charge of their party to vote in favour of him running the country.
  
• The heave succeeds and Cowen then heads to the Áras. The new leader is elected at the end of the first week of the election campaign and barely has time to prepare for the TV debates.
  

None of these outcomes are particularly good for the government parties and some are disastrous. On the other hand, they are all pretty positive for the opposition parties, especially Labour, who have to go on the offensive against both FG and SF to avoid being squeezed from both left and right. Therefore it comes as no surprise that Fine Gael have come out saying that this motion was badly timed and ill-advised. One only has to think back to the summer to see FG's track record on badly timed confidence motions though. During the run up to the motion of no confidence Richard Bruton made his ill-fated move against Enda Kenny. It seems unlikely that Joan Burton is going to launch a heave against Eamon Gilmore over the weekend but you never know - stranger things have happened.

Fianna who cares

For some bizarre reason every commentator, every blogger and every tweeter seems to be up in arms about the possible heave in Fianna Fáil. Sure, a change at the top in FF will precipitate an election perhaps a few weeks earlier than expected but beyond that I don't get why people care so much. FF are a busted flush and no changing of the guard will save them in the election.

Much is made about how the Cowen and Coughlan image will damage various FF candidates chances of being re-elected. Are we really to believe that a party with Dara Calleary and Barry Andrews at the controls will suddenly have a massive increase in popularity? Do they really think the public are that forgetful? I don't care who leads FF, all I care about is that they are booted from office and their lackeys are removed from all the quangos.

I am not Nostradamus

In today's Irish Times there is a pretty emphatic statement on a topic I discussed last February. Mary Hanafin and Barry Andrews will both be staying put in Dún Laoghaire for the General Election.

The piece does have a few uncharacteristic jabs from Hanafin at both Andrews and PBP's Richard Boyd-Barrett, hinting that since the Andrews' come from Goatstown in Dublin South that perhaps Barry should have moved and that local issues like the 46A bus route are not going to be important. What is most interesting in the article is the way both Fine Gael and Labour are completely ignored. One wonders if Hanafin is already calling it 3 seats between FG and L with the 4th being a scrap between the two FF and PBP.

Seems my powers of prediction have failed me. I shudder to think how many of my other predictions will come wrong in the next few months!

Good riddance to bad rubbish

So Bertie gives the country a final Christmas present by announcing that he won't run in the upcoming general election. While this comes as no big surprise, given that he would loose all his pensions if he stayed on in the next Dáil as an opposition back bencher. Also given that he'd face a tough battle in Dublin Central to get elected, it is good to have closure on the Ahern era.

While he deserves some credit for the Good Friday Agreement and the peace process in general, on domestic issues history will not look on Bertie so kindly. The tribunals, the digouts and the lack of bank account show the contempt in which he held the position of Taoiseach and the people of Ireland. The social-partnership scam and other buy-offs like benchmarking and SSIAs have been shown up as the folly that they are.

Adding Bertie to the list of other rats deserting the ship such as Dermot Ahern and Noel Dempsey is somewhat satisfying. What would have been better would be for him to have run in the election and let the people of Dublin Central have their say by not re-electing him. Hopefully next up will be Mary Harney.

The End

In 1967 The Doors released their debut album featuring the hits "Break on Through" and "Light My Fire". During the late 80s and early 90s I went through my Doors phase and became quite the fan of the album and especially the final track, the epic "The End". On the bus into work today the song popped back into my head and I noticed how prophetic Jim Morrison had been in that song with regard to the Irish economy in 2010 and it could be interpreted as a lament being sung by Lenihan and his Fianna Fáil comrades.

This is the end, beautiful friend
Fairly obvious opening line on the current state of chassis.

This is the end, my only friend, the end
So who is this only friend? At this point the public have turned on FF as have the bond markets. Who is left? The EU, the ECB, the IMF? Or is it just the Irish bankers and developers?

Of our elaborate plans, the end
Plans to dump €60B+ of additional debt on the shoulders of the Irish tax payers without a whimper from the coping classes.

Of everything that stands, the end
From a FF point of view, the only thing that counts is being in charge. Here Morrison/Lenihan is lamenting the imminent destruction of the party. The trappings of power will come crumbling down as the deFFification of society begins starting at the top with the TDs.

No safety or surprise, the end
No surprise, we've known for a long time how banjaxed the country is but we've decided to keep the populace in the dark and there is no safe route back to prosperity. It's the EU, the IMF or default and darkness.

I'll never look into your eyes again
Cowardice from those FF TDs who will decide to retire before the next election rather than face the wrath of the electorate.

Can you picture what will be
So limitless and free
Limitless national debt as billions are pumped into banks while schools and hospitals are left rotting. Perhaps a touch of irony with the use of the word free.

Desperately in need of some stranger's hand
In a desperate land
Again a reference to the strangers of the IMF coming in to this desperate land to sort out the mess left behind.

After this point, the song meanders into various psychedelic images of Roman wildernesses, highways, snakes and a blue bus. Not really sure how this fits with my chosen narrative so I'll just skip on ahead. The Oedipal section is even more open to interpretation but I'm just going to say the role of the Father is played by the Irish economy and the Mother is the Irish people. Morrison/Lenihan winds up the song with a return to the main theme - this is the end of the Republic of Ireland in its current state.

The end of laughter and soft lies
The end of nights we tried to die
This is the end

This analysis probably makes it clear that I wasn't so good at the old English poetry for the Leaving Cert. Best stick to facts and figures in future!

Crossing the Floor

In most modern parliaments there are examples of members crossing the floor to join a rival party on some point of principle. In Ireland, due to strict party discipline, this is a rare occurance. In fact apart from the political wanderings of Conor Cruise O'Brien and Michael O'Leary bailing from Labour to Fine Gael, I can't think of any other changes that didn't involve whole parties splitting, forming or merging.

So it was with some shock that I read some of Chris Andrews' tweets from last night

• FG are not getting the traction in the polls because people see little difference between FF and FG. A merger makes sense to me
  
• If people were serious it shouldn't take long. I believe there is as much difference within FF as there is between FF and FG
  
• It's all pretty much speculation because it's unlikely to happen. Maybe after next election is would be considered.It's a big leap
  

Here is an elected FF politician finally admitting something that we have all known for a long time - that there is no fundamental difference between the two centre-right, Civil War parties. Sure, the personnel in FG might be a bit more straight edged and FF a bit more rough around the edges, but from a policy and ethos point of view they're not that far apart. Of course Chris, as a Dublin South East TD, is facing a tough battle to retain his seat whenever the next election comes around. As I posted over a year ago DSE is going to be tough for the government parties. Based on the most recent poll with FF on 18% nationally, they must be somewhere near 10% and transfer toxic in DSE. At the moment I'm going to stick with my prediction of 2Lab, 1FG and 1FF but that is now extremely shaky - could be a second FG.

If Chris does cross the floor it will make for an interesting FG selection convention. With Lucinda Creighton as a sitting deputy, Eoghan Murphy pushing hard with seemingly endless resources behind him and the specter of Michael McDowell's return to electoral politics looming over them, this four way battle would put the Labour DSE in-fighting of earlier in the year in the ha'penny place. I'm sure Phoenix magazine would have a field day.

Congestion charges

No, not the central London traffic reduction measure. More the accusation that the Taoiseach was suffering from congestion when giving a radio interview on Morning Ireland on Tuesday. Now I'm all on for having a bit of a session even on a school night. I'm pretty sure there have been times when I've been somewhere between hungover and drunk going to work, probably closer to the latter than the former. But I make sure of three things:

• I plan my work so as the morning after the night before I do all the easy tasks that I have been putting off for ages like cleaning the office or returning the stack of overdue library books.
• I am not Taoiseach
• I do not have an interview with national media

Now obviously the last two are unlikely to crop up in my life, but Brian Cowen could have taken a leaf from my book and arranged his schedule to not do media until Pat Kenny or even Sean O'Rourke at lunchtime. As the great Falstaff said, the better part of valour is discretion and missing one interview would have saved an awful lot of uproar about essentially nothing.

Having made the initial error, FF then went into overdrive trying to spin the story by claiming various medical excuses, blaming Simon Coveney and eventually the Taoiseach apologizing to the public on TV news. All these action have just compounded the problem. Like an itch, they couldn't just leave it alone and their actions, and especially Noel Whelan's performance on Pat Kenny the following day, haven't helped at all.

Finally a special award to Batt O'Keefe in the "that doesn't necessarily mean what you think it does" category. Fulsome has several negative connotations with definitions like "offensive to good taste" and "insincerely lavish". Now I'm sure the Deputy didn't mean to stick the knife in, but sometimes you have to wonder.

Ireland v Darwin

First up it was the Minister for Education giving credit to Albert Einstein for coming up with the Theory of Evolution. Now it is the (Junior) Minister for Science launching a book that calls evolution a hoax. What is it with this country and poor old Charles Darwin?

Science is based on discussion and debate and so I would whole heartedly welcome a rational, fact based discussion on the merits of evolution. However, the huge preponderance of evidence points to the fact that evolution through crossover and mutation is the method by which order has been created from disorder in the natural world. The Minister for Science should not be seen lending his support to a polemic against a theory that has withstood the challenges of the scientific method. Having attended events where John May, the author, spoke (ranted would be a more accurate description) against the evils of teaching evolution I am certain that his book will add nothing to the debate on the origins of life.

Fortunately, following substantial pressure yesterday, the Minister has withdrawn from the event.

Dempsey's grand tour

Seems like Minister Dempsey has gotten himself into a spot of bother. You'd think after eVoting and going to Malta during the snow that he'd keep a low profile. But no, instead he clocked up either €13,000 or €100,000, depending on the source, in the government jet in a way that was completely unnecessary.

The Minister had a speaking slot at the MacGill summer school in Donegal mid afternoon. So he took the government jet up to Derry and then had his Garda driver take him the rest of the way to Glenties. After speaking he hightailed it back to Derry and flew to London. The following morning he had a top secret meeting in London and then came home again on the jet.

This jaunt raises some interesting questions about his routing

• Since the Garda driver had to go from Dublin to Derry anyway, why didn't the Minister just take the car directly from Dublin/Navan to Glenties?
• If he had to fly, why not take Aer Arann to Donegal? There is an early afternoon flight most days of the week and I'm sure that there would have been no shortage of FF volunteers to drive him down to Glenties.
• Why not travel back to Dublin and get the last commercial flight to Heathrow or Gatwick instead of flying from Derry to London?
• Why was the meeting the next morning arranged so early? If it had been delay by about 90 minutes he could have taken the early morning flight to Heathrow and made it?

It's not like the Minister's speech in Glenties said anything new. Dempsey has gone on record many times about his love of electoral list systems. Also was his participation in MacGill part of official government business or in a personal capacity? It's not like he is a member of the committee that has been looking into electoral reform or the minister with responsibility for the matter. Why wasn't Sean Ardagh the government representative?

This entire escapade just heaps more fuel on the FF funeral pyre. The sooner these chancers are out of office the better at this stage.

New Political Party

I guess it is symptomatic of the silly season, but over the last few weeks, blogs and twitter have been abuzz about the idea of a new political party being formed or a massive revamp of Fianna Fáil from within. Following various articles from left leaning commentators (VinB and FOT) about the possibility of a Labour led government, it comes as no surprise that a letter proposing a new liberal party was published in today's Irish Times.

what is needed is a truly liberal party which would provide a real alternative to the social democratic Labour Party and the centre-right conservatism of both Fianna Fail and Fine Gael, now indistinguishable from each other?

Sounds great in principle, a third way, free from historical baggage of the civil war, purely focusing on the liberal agenda and with a strong libertarian streak. In fact, in a way, it is the type of political party that this country has been crying out for. With almost 90 years of uninterrupted, centre-right, conservative rule, politics in Ireland could benefit from a conservative/liberal/socialist split with a smattering of smaller parties like you have in most modern democracies.

The problem is that any new party will struggle, as has most recently been shown by the PDs. Their relatively brief existence certainly shook up the political system for a while, but they never made the major breakthrough and eventually faded to irrelevance for several reasons: their agenda was absorbed by FF and FG, internal fighting between Cox, Harney and McDowell, punishment for acting as the FF mudguard.

A new party has two ways to form, either a disgruntled section of an existing party jump ship or else a grassroots movement eventually evolves into a fully formed party. The former is where the PDs came from, the latter the source of the Greens. There is no great groundswell of support from the general public to a new movement, therefore the only realistic route is through a splinter group from an existing party. Currently it is conceivable that some of the anti-Enda section of FG could bail and be joined by some of the disgruntled FF backbenchers. There are several problems with this scenario though

1. Neither FG nor FF or its members would be particularly aligned to the liberal movement. Sure FF sit with them in the European Parliament, but that is just to avoid having to sit with the nutjob right group they were in before.
   
2. The most likely FF to jump are the likes of Mattie McGrath and John McGuinness, neither of whom have a particularly strong national profile. From the FG benches you might get some of the heavers of last week but probably not Bruton, Varadkar or Kieran O'Donnell. Having no heavy hitter to lead the party would be a problem.
   
3. Were even a couple of FF deputies jump ship an election would quickly follow. Running a general election campaign takes between €10k and €30k per candidate. Were the party to contest every constituency they would need around €1 million. No fundraising that is within the SIPO rules could come close to that in the timescale required.
   
4. In an election any FF jumpers are still likely to be punished by the electorate for the financial meltdown of the last few years. A wolf in sheep's clothing is still a wolf.
   

It seems unlikely that we are on the verge of seeing a new political force appear. A long summer recess for FG to heal its wounds, for FF to pray for some economic recovery and for Labour to recharge the batteries for another year of increasing support levels across the country.

Stop! Shuffletime!

Willie O'Dea's resignation last night leaves the post of Minister for Defence currently vacant. As an interim measure Brian Cowen has claimed control of the department, but it would be very unlikely that he will hold on to the post for any length of time. He does have some breathing time to decide what to do with the post - he could just promote someone from the back benches or take advantage of this opportunity to carry out a reshuffle.

If Cowen wants to just promote from within the obvious choice is moving Pat Carey from Chief Whip. Alternatively he might take a back bencher from a constituency where FF are looking shakey for holding on to seats at the next election. There may also be a requirement to appoint someone from the mid-west region for geographical reasons so you could be looking at Niall Collins, Máire Hoctor or Timmy Dooley. It would probably be too much of a kick in the teeth for O'Dea to have his constituency colleague Peter Power elevated to full ministerial office.

The second option is the big reshuffle. Mary Coughlan's almost daily gaffes and failures make it an imperative that she be moved from Enterprise. The only problem is where to put her if she is still to remain as Tánaiste. I shudder at the thought of her being in Foreign Affairs, and big spending departments like Education, Health and Social Welfare should be off limits too. Perhaps a move to Transport or back to Agriculture are plausible. Other candidates for change include Dermot Ahern, Batt O'Keefe, Mary Harney, Noel Dempsey, Martin Cullen and Mary Hanafin. Each of these have blotted their copybook in some form over the last while but it is impossible to see a Stalinesque purging of the old guard as it would precipitate a leadership challenge by one of the demoted within weeks and would collapse the government.

While a major re-jig would be great, I think the single promotion is the most likely outcome with perhaps a minor change to move Coughlan to somewhere harmless that might involve Smith going to Social Welfare and Hanafin moving to Enterprise. Moving the deckchairs won't stop the boat from sinking but it might give it a bit more stability to keep afloat a while longer.