May you live in interesting times

So as one might imagine, the last week has been one of those glued to the coverage week as various storylines were picked up again after the long summer break in the political soap opera that is Ireland.

Health

The major plot twist is of course the resignation of Roisin Shortall from her role as junior minister in the Dept of Health. The truth of the matter is that the wrong minister has been forced out in this instance. James Reilly's shenanigans at getting some extra resources allocated to his constituency is exactly the sort of stuff we used to give out about with Fianna Fail and the Healy-Rae clan. What is even worse is his attempts to cover it up with bluster about Shortall's manipulation of the criteria for selection when the paperwork shows that this is patently false.
But the real failing here is with the leadership of the Labour party. Gilmore and his handlers should have marched down to Hawkins House and gone though Reilly. They had the high moral ground here, had public support (except maybe in Dublin North), and most importantly they would have been in the right. Enda Kenny should have been given an ultimatum of Reilly or no coalition and given 12 hours to mull it over. And then they should have had the backbone to follow through. Instead, the wise heads in Ely Place decided to shaft one of our most able politicians for the sake of not upsetting Fine Gael.
I would advise anyone who hasn't heard it yet to listen back to Shortall on the Marian Finucane show from this morning. She certainly doesn't hold back. Now we have Alex White promoted to the open slot in Health. While I am sure he'll do fine, he was actually a very good chair of the Finance Committee and will most likely have to give up leading the Labour delegation on the constitutional convention. We might have been best served leaving him where he was.

Phil Hogan

I don't even know where to begin on this one. Hogan has been a disaster since the day he took office. Between septic tanks, the household charge and the planning enquiries he has been an inverse Midas, where everything he has touched turned to shit. Now the story comes out that he wrote a pretty offensive letter about a family of travellers to some local constituents promising that they wouldn't be housed by the local authority. Whatever about the problem of the Minister interfering in the activities of local government that reports back to his Department, the contents and tone of the letter and representations are a disgrace. He's another one who should no longer be holding office, but instead his loyalty to Enda during the 2010 heave is still being paid back

March for Choice

The one bright light of the last week was today's successful pro-choice march through the streets of Dublin. Despite some well known commentators saying there were less than 30(!) people there, I estimated about 2000 or so marchers, with the organizers claiming 5000. Hopefully this can be the start of a real campaign to get legislation passed on X and ABC before moving on to a more liberal abortion regime not wrapped up in false claims around mother's health. Congratulations are due to Sinead Redmond and the rest of the pro-choice activists. The ball is now firmly in Ivana Bacik's court once the expert report is released some time in the very near future.

Confucius never had it so right - it is a curse to live in interesting times.

Enda vs Chuck

One of my guilty pleasures is watching the TV show Chuck. In the show, the main protagonist Chuck, a mild mannered tech support minion, becomes a prized NSA/CIA asset who fights international terrorism while still being home in time to play Halo and eat pizza with his best buddy Morgan. But the thing of interest to us is that every episode is called "Chuck vs the Something". I want to take a look at Enda Kenny and the things he is trying to tackle and see how they stack up.

Enda vs the EU/IMF

Election promises from both government parties were all about making bondholders pay, renegotiating the bailout interest rate and the infamous "Frankfort's way or Labour's way" statement from Eamon Gilmore. Since taking the reins, Enda has had a couple of meetings with the various EU and IMF representative but it looks like nothing has changed. The draft MOU that was published a few weeks ago is pretty much identical to the one that would have been expected from FF had they stayed in power. We're still tied to the high rates and the bondmarket is still well north of 10%.

Enda vs the Seanad

Another of the major election promises was political reform, spearheaded by the abolition of the Seanad. Now I've written at length about this topic so no need to rehash the arguments here. Now it looks as though it will be at least another year or two before any referendum is brought before the people to abolish the Seanad. I guess it has turned out to be a bit more complicated than Enda originally thought. He has also taken full advantage of is nominating powers to put some interesting people into the Seanad including Eamon Coughlan and Aideen Hayden, but really, did he have to stick Marie Louise O'Donnell in there? Maybe she's going to fill the Eoghan Harris role in the new Seanad line-up.

Enda vs the Separation of Powers

Speaking of nominations to the Seanad another interesting one is Martin McAleese, husband of the President. While I am sure that he will be a fine contributor to the Seanad, it does see to fly in the face of the concept of separation of powers. Surely the Presidency should be completely independent of the Oireachtas? The other odd decision of this type was the decision to merge the Departments of Defence and Justice under the one person. Again, while it is unlikely that there will be an armed coup any time soon in Ireland, I think that the principle of separating control of the two security forces of the state is not one that should be thrown away lightly.

Enda vs the Speech Writers

Finally there's The Speech. While watching Obama's introduction on Monday evening, it struck me that the turn of phrase in Enda's speech was quite good, even if it was delivered in a bit of an All Ireland winning captain's speech style. "Tá an athás orm an Obama seo a glacadh ar son foireann na hÉireann." Only when I noticed Obama busting himself laughing behind Enda that I twigged where the lines were coming from. I have to say I thought it was a great idea to recycle the victory night speech into an introduction and I don't believe for one minute that Enda didn't know what he, or his writer, had done. Good man for having the balls to follow through with it.

I may come back to this list a some point in the future. I kinda like the format!

Habemus Taoiseach

It should come as no surprise to people that both Fine Gael and Labour have accepted the draft programme for government and that the parties will now elect Enda Kenny as Taoiseach on Wednesday when the 31st Dáil assembles. Once the dust settled at the count centres on Saturday week last this was the inevitable result. The negotiations between the parties may have been difficult but there was no doubt that a joint platform would be agreed.

The real question is whether it is a blue document with red input or vice-versa. Both sides, at their respective ratification events yesterday, claimed that the Programme for Government was implementing the majority of their election manifesto. Considering the acrimonious campaigning between FG and Lab in the run up to the election it seems surprising that both manifestos can be equally accommodated in the agreed PfG.

While obviously the document is a compromise from both sides here are a few of the key items I am disappointed in

• Healthcare - although claimed as a Labour victory, having competing, for-profit insurers is the key difference between the parties. Not happy with that at all.
  
• Water Charges - like bin charges, this will start off with the promise of more than enough for everyone and waivers for the poor but will slowly be eroded over time to raise additional revenue.
  
• Reform - the headlong charge into reform continues without actually describing the problems and what we want to solve. Solutions without definition usually cause more problems in the end.
  
• Sale of State Assets - I guess it comes down to what is deemed strategic, but I do worry about the privatization agenda.

While I voted against accepting the document, I am happy to give both sides the benefit of the doubt for the moment. Let's see what happens over the next few months as the parties settle themselves down to putting the country back on track.

General Election results

Well that was some weekend. Like all good dramas the count had highs and lows and of course a large quantity of alcohol was consumed. Met a lot of people at the count centre that I hadn't seen in ages which was also great.

First the positives of the election

• Kevin Humphreys taking a second seat in Dublin South East. I've spent a lot of time on the doors with Kevin and it is great to see all that hard work pay off. What's even better is that we managed to get two seats on just over 25% of the vote.
  
• The slaughter of Fianna Fáil across the country. After 14 years of mismanagement the electorate finally gave them the kicking they deserve.
  
• Ciara Conway hanging on to Brian O'Shea's seat in Waterford. When Thomas Kyne retired in 1977 it took a few elections to win the seat back. Ciara taking it on the 1st attempt is wonderful.
  
• The electorate of Dublin North West rejecting right wing candidates across the board.
  
• Derek Nolan topping the poll in Galway West. Taking over from Michael D Higgins can never be the easiest task and with Catherine Connolly eating into your support base that job gets harder.
  
• The success of both SF and ULA candidates that shows there is an appetite for strong left wing politics in Ireland.
  

Then the downsides

• Vote management breakdowns in constituencies potentially costing Labour second seats. Cork East, Dublin West and Dún Laoighre I'm looking at you in particular. Bacik and Nulty would have been great additions to the Dáil.
  
• The unstopable FG machine west of the Shannon.
  
• The re-election of a large group of parish pumpers, particularly in Kerry South.
  
• The success of SF and ULA shows that Labour needs to be careful about its left flank as there are now serious threats to it.
  

So where do we go from here? With probably 76 seats, FG are in the driving seat when it comes to forming a government. The obvious partner is Labour and I'm sure that will be the outcome in the end. The alternatives are cobbling together a group of independents or dealing with the devil in the guise of FF.

From the list of elected independents Ross, Lowry, Healy-Rae, and Grealish are the obvious cohort. After that you need to rope some of both McGraths, Wallace and Fleming. I would think it a step to far for O'Sullivan, Pringle, Murphy or Halligan to support an FG led government but then again look at the Gregory deal with Haughey for precedent.

Despite being natural bed-fellows, with only a squabble over some treaty about 90 years ago to differentiate between them, there is a strong argument for a reverse Tallaght strategy where by FF agree to support an FG minority government. However, this is the least likely outcome of this week's horse trading. It would be extremely difficult for Enda Kenny to accept this support after all his statements on a strong, stable government. It would also stop Michael Martin's plans for renewal of FF as he needs to distance the party as much as possible from the cuts and taxes that will be implemented.

Losing Ministers

So much for the motion of confidence in Brian Cowen stabilizing the country. Following on from Micheál Martin's resignation after his failed coup, the poor Taoiseach has lost another five of his ministers in the last day. There are now six departments with Cowen as acting minister to go along with his responsibilities as Taoiseach.

Of the remaining ministers it seems unlikely that Lenihan or Coughlan will depart nor the Green duo. Mary Hanafin, despite coming out against Cowen has hung on in Tourism and I don't see her bailing either. Dev Óg is needed to keep the FF flag flying in the west. This just leaves Brendan Smith who could go either way and Pat Carey who due to his allegiances to Hanafin may just stick it out despite being in serious danger of loosing his seat in Dublin North West.

Promoting backbenchers or current junior ministers to these positions would be the final act of cynicism of this Government. While they won't qualify for pensions for ministerial service, it is farcical to suggest that over a 3 month period (1 until the election, 1 during the campaign and 1 in caretaker mode until the new government is installed) these people could reform and rejuvenate their departments. Spreading the load amongst the remaining ministers is the only viable option.

Drink driving kills governments?

Is that the sound of the camel's back breaking? Can the straw of drink driving limits really signal an end to this government's reign? Seems like there was a fairly lively meeting of the Fianna Fáil parliamentary party last night discussing Minister Dempsey's proposal to reduce the blood-alcohol limit to 50mg (and 20mg for newly qualified and professional drivers). According to the Irish Times, only Rory O'Hanlon and Michael Kennedy were in favour of the proposals with several rural TDs being extremely vocal in opposition to the measure.

What strikes me as strange is that elected representatives could object to bringing Ireland's drink driving laws more in line with the rest of Europe. Only the UK and Malta match our current level of 80mg. Most others are at 50mg with some at 20mg and a few with zero alcohol permissible. The only possible justification for opposing the reduction is the libertarian point of view that all such laws are unjust interference by the state in a person's right to do what they want. But in this case even that is dubious as driving while under the influence strongly impacts on those around you - pedestrians, cyclists and other motorists.

While I can't wait to see the end of Biffo's rule, it would actually disgust me that after signing up for NAMA and imposing harsh cuts on the poorest sections of society, that the government would fall because some TDs still think it should be ok to have a few jars and then drive home from the pub. It could only happen in Ireland - but it is unlikely to lead to an election.

Enda versus the Seanad

So Enda Kenny has put the cat amongst the pigeons with his speech last Saturday night where he proposed the abolition of Seanad Éireann and a reduction in the number of TDs elected to the Dáil. This seems to have come as quite a shock to even his on parliamentary party as FG representatives clogged up the airwaves over the last few days with protests.

The Seanad is made up of 60 members elected or appointed in the following manner

• 11 appointed directly by the Taoiseach
• 6 elected by university graduates (3 TCD, 3 NUI)
• 43 from vocational panels as follows
• 7 from administrative
• 11 from agricultural
• 5 from education and culture
• 9 from industrial and commerce
• 11 from labour

In theory this is meant to allow people from each of the respective groups in society influence policy through ammending legislation in the upper chamber. In practice, the Seanad has become a resting home for those who loose their seats in the Dáil, potential Dáil candidates of the future who could do with some experience or (worst of all) people to whom the Taoiseach of the day feels a certain obligation (eg Eoghan Harris).

The main problem with Enda Kenny's plan is that he needs to pass a referendum to abolish the Seanad. Articles 18 and 19 outline the requirements and role of the Seanad and both articles would have to be removed. After a succesful referendum, legislation would have to be passed to repeal the enabling legislation. Realistically the Seanad would cease to exist when the general election after the next one is called - sometime between 2015 and 2017 most likely.

The funniest part of this whole situation is that the most vocal opponents of this proposal are the very same FG senators who pretty much to a man will be elected to the Dail next time out. Perhaps they should just keep their heads down and stop drawing attention to the fact that Enda has gone off on yet another solo run.

New Programme for Government

After Ciaran Cuffe's bluff being called, the Greens stayed at the table until just before last night's main evening news to agree the new programme for government. With the members' convention only 14 hours away you'd think that speedy dissemination would be key but instead nothing appeared over night. Tweets started appearing from party members who arrived at the RDS and still had no documentation to read. Eventually at 11:10 the document was released online and printed copies distributed to the masses shortly thereafter. Nice to see that an informed decision will be made having such a long period of time to digest the contents of the PfG.

The document itself is full of nice aspirations but short on detail. There are no costings anywhere and no indications of where the money might come from to implement any of the proposals. There are a lot of green agenda items ticked off - GM food, forestry, fur farming and public transport. Indeed it is interesting to note that one of the few firm deadlines in the document is 2016 completion of Metro North and the Dart Interconnector. However it is also worth noting that these have been key parts of PfGs and transport policies since the mid ninties so I won't be holding my breath on that.

The CIO role is a good idea, but some of the ideas are very wierd. For a country with some of the highest electricity costs in Europe, to set ourselves up as a Data Centre hub for cloud computing seems odd at best. Providing broadband to every house by 2012 (subject to EU funding) is also laughable. This should have been done at least 8 years ago if not longer. 100Mb to schools is great until you realise that the IT equipment in most schools is donated 4 year old computers that continually fail. Also the students will just use it to access Bebo and Facebook since there will be no investment in upskilling teachers to deal with the new medium.

Of course, all this is moot. The PfG will be accepted and NAMA will fail to be rejected. The NAMA legislation will then be pushed through and assets transferred from the banks before the budget. When the FF back benchers see the budget cuts that are announced the heave will begin and the government will fall. So all that will be achieved is putting the nation in hock for €50-€60B. Go on the Greens!