Habemus Taoiseach

It should come as no surprise to people that both Fine Gael and Labour have accepted the draft programme for government and that the parties will now elect Enda Kenny as Taoiseach on Wednesday when the 31st Dáil assembles. Once the dust settled at the count centres on Saturday week last this was the inevitable result. The negotiations between the parties may have been difficult but there was no doubt that a joint platform would be agreed.

The real question is whether it is a blue document with red input or vice-versa. Both sides, at their respective ratification events yesterday, claimed that the Programme for Government was implementing the majority of their election manifesto. Considering the acrimonious campaigning between FG and Lab in the run up to the election it seems surprising that both manifestos can be equally accommodated in the agreed PfG.

While obviously the document is a compromise from both sides here are a few of the key items I am disappointed in

• Healthcare - although claimed as a Labour victory, having competing, for-profit insurers is the key difference between the parties. Not happy with that at all.
  
• Water Charges - like bin charges, this will start off with the promise of more than enough for everyone and waivers for the poor but will slowly be eroded over time to raise additional revenue.
  
• Reform - the headlong charge into reform continues without actually describing the problems and what we want to solve. Solutions without definition usually cause more problems in the end.
  
• Sale of State Assets - I guess it comes down to what is deemed strategic, but I do worry about the privatization agenda.

While I voted against accepting the document, I am happy to give both sides the benefit of the doubt for the moment. Let's see what happens over the next few months as the parties settle themselves down to putting the country back on track.

Too legit to quit

Ah MC Hammer, where are you now? Apart from his awesome (?!) "U Can't Touch This" song with the video featuring super baggy pants, "Too legit to quit" is probably one of his most famous songs. Well as and from now that has become my catchphrase as I have been successfully nominated as one of 20 candidates for the 3 Seanad seats in the Dublin University constituency. Maybe I should take the song on as my campaign tune!

Anyhow, yesterday was a day of mixed emotions. Having signed up all my nominators and assentors I delivered the paperwork to the deputy returning officer at 10am in the Arts Building conference room. They took my email and phone number and said they'd be in contact. Then nothing happened. For ages. And ages. The deadline came and went without a sound from anyone. Luckily I had a couple of meetings to attend and so I wasn't left watching the clock.

At about 3 or so I saw some tweets indicating that 20 candidates had been nominated for the DU election. Surprisingly, or maybe not, various media outlets had been sent a release with the candidate names before the candidates themselves were informed. Luckily within the hour I received an official notification of my successful nomination.

Over the course of the evening I received various messages of support by phone, email, facebook and twitter, some from old friends, some from people I have never met before. It is heartening to feel that the efforts I am making are resonating with at least part of the electorate. I realize that I don't have the high profile of some of the other candidates, but I hope that people will take the time to read about the candidates and vote for candidates that share their viewpoint.

The campaign website is almost ready to go. I just need to find time to take a few photographs and then we'll be in business. Over the weekend I also need to finalize the Litir Um Thoghchan as it needs to be delivered to An Post before the end of next week. Whatever else happens, I'm not going to be kept idle for the foreseeable future.

Review of election prediction

Just before the Dáil was dissolved I had a go at predicting the results of the general election. It seems only fair to review how I got on.

Fine Gael

Predicted 63, won 76. Well that was pretty far out. They did far better in both rural and urban areas than I thought. Four seats in Mayo and three in places like Wicklow, Cavan/Monaghan and Dublin South helped the cause. Pretty much everything that could have gone right did go right. A huge seat bonus over their 1st preference vote.

Labour

Predicted 42, won 37. Not too far off. With some better vote management there could have been another three or four seats. Looked like being closer to 30 a week before polling so a good recovery.

Fianna Fáil

Predicted 32, won 20. I had them holding 6 in Dublin when they only landed one. Elsewhere the swing to FG and gene-pool independents cost them dearly.

Sinn Féin

Predicted 14, won 14. Bang on! Except I went for two in Cavan/Monaghan and one in Wexford before the Wallace appearance and didn't see the Cork East or Sligo/North Leitrim ones.

Greens

Predicted 1, won 0. I thought they would hold Sargent's seat but they didn't. With less than 2% of the national vote the also lost state funding. Sad day for them.

ULA

Predicted 4, won 4. Woohoo! Exactly right.

Independent

Predicted 10, won 15. The hardest group to call right as in most places I have no local knowledge. Didn't think Ming would do it and Wallace hadn't declared when I did this.

Overall I'd have to give myself about a C on this. Did ok on the minor groupings but didn't see the big swing to FG or think that FF would have been so toxic on the day.

Paperwork

On first glance the process of getting on the ballot paper for the Seanad election seems pretty trivial. All you need are a nominator, a seconder and then eight assentors all of whom are on the register of electors. Compared to the large number of signatures (or cash payment) required for the General Election or the even more restrictive rules for the Presidency, that seems fairly straight forward.

That is until you actually try to get all the names on a single sheet of paper in a short period of time. Of course the blame for that lies fairly squarely on my shoulders for not having organized this months ago but people do seem to have the most annoying habit of being out of town at exactly the wrong time. Secondly the 10 people all have to remember at which address they have registered their vote for the Seanad election. With most of my supporters being around my age people have moved house several times since registering. Unless they have registered their parents house or equivalent then their name may have been struck off the register without them even realizing.

So the plan is to head into the nomination office at 10am tomorrow when it opens. If I discover that someone is not on the register or has given the incorrect address then it gives me two hours to solve the problem. Hopefully it won't come to that though. Next up I have to have to traditional mug-shot taken for the ballot paper. Wonder if its more a hair up or a hair down type of a day ...

Moving up to Honours

The name of this blog is a throw back to my school days when students who weren't particularly good at the subject at hand took the pass level paper. In more politically correct times this has become the ordinary level paper but to people of my vintage it'll always be "doing pass". As someone who isn't very good at it, pass level politics seemed like a good name to have.

However, now I have decided to throw my hat in the ring for the DU Seanad election which is the equivalent of moving up to the honours class. At the moment the country is crying out for new faces, new names and new ideas. I want to be able to say that I did my part by putting myself in front of the TCD Alumni and asking for their vote. Readers of the blog will know my stance on most issues but I will be putting formal policy statements together over the next few days.

I am under no illusions that this is going to be an simple election. There will be many other fine candidates putting their names forward each with their own unique take on things. I feel that I have the ideas and drive to follow through and be a strong voice for a more rational, progressive Ireland. At the moment I am finalizing my paperwork and getting the campaign website together which should be ready for launching by the weekend. If anyone feels like lending a hand please let me know - the more the merrier as they say!

General Election results

Well that was some weekend. Like all good dramas the count had highs and lows and of course a large quantity of alcohol was consumed. Met a lot of people at the count centre that I hadn't seen in ages which was also great.

First the positives of the election

• Kevin Humphreys taking a second seat in Dublin South East. I've spent a lot of time on the doors with Kevin and it is great to see all that hard work pay off. What's even better is that we managed to get two seats on just over 25% of the vote.
  
• The slaughter of Fianna Fáil across the country. After 14 years of mismanagement the electorate finally gave them the kicking they deserve.
  
• Ciara Conway hanging on to Brian O'Shea's seat in Waterford. When Thomas Kyne retired in 1977 it took a few elections to win the seat back. Ciara taking it on the 1st attempt is wonderful.
  
• The electorate of Dublin North West rejecting right wing candidates across the board.
  
• Derek Nolan topping the poll in Galway West. Taking over from Michael D Higgins can never be the easiest task and with Catherine Connolly eating into your support base that job gets harder.
  
• The success of both SF and ULA candidates that shows there is an appetite for strong left wing politics in Ireland.
  

Then the downsides

• Vote management breakdowns in constituencies potentially costing Labour second seats. Cork East, Dublin West and Dún Laoighre I'm looking at you in particular. Bacik and Nulty would have been great additions to the Dáil.
  
• The unstopable FG machine west of the Shannon.
  
• The re-election of a large group of parish pumpers, particularly in Kerry South.
  
• The success of SF and ULA shows that Labour needs to be careful about its left flank as there are now serious threats to it.
  

So where do we go from here? With probably 76 seats, FG are in the driving seat when it comes to forming a government. The obvious partner is Labour and I'm sure that will be the outcome in the end. The alternatives are cobbling together a group of independents or dealing with the devil in the guise of FF.

From the list of elected independents Ross, Lowry, Healy-Rae, and Grealish are the obvious cohort. After that you need to rope some of both McGraths, Wallace and Fleming. I would think it a step to far for O'Sullivan, Pringle, Murphy or Halligan to support an FG led government but then again look at the Gregory deal with Haughey for precedent.

Despite being natural bed-fellows, with only a squabble over some treaty about 90 years ago to differentiate between them, there is a strong argument for a reverse Tallaght strategy where by FF agree to support an FG minority government. However, this is the least likely outcome of this week's horse trading. It would be extremely difficult for Enda Kenny to accept this support after all his statements on a strong, stable government. It would also stop Michael Martin's plans for renewal of FF as he needs to distance the party as much as possible from the cuts and taxes that will be implemented.

Campaign Diary - The Final Day

I love voting, not that it should come as much of a surprise to regular readers. Since I turned 18 I have only missed one vote, when Mary McAleese became President. Other than that I have re-arranged holidays, worked early or late or just strolled up the road to exercise my democratic right.

For the last few votes I have attended the polling station earlier and earlier in the morning. For the locals in 2009 I voted at about 7:20 and for Lisbon 2 I was the second person into the polling station just as they opened up for business. However, today I took it easier and voted coming up to lunch. At the time the presiding officer told me they had a turnout of about 18%. Reports on the evening news suggests that overall turnout will be around 70% which is fantastic.

My ballot paper had 16 names on it. 1 and 2 were easy - Humphreys and Quinn. After a little bit of debate Gormley, despite everything, went down as 3, ULA/PBP's Mooney got 4, SF MacAodhain 5 and then Dylan Haskins at 6. I did contemplate going all the way down just to put Coyle at 16 and a mix of FF/FG at 13-15 but I just couldn't bring myself to separate the rest of the mess. It is unlikely that my ballot will go beyond Kevin Humphreys anyway so I didn't feel too bad.

Tomorrow the count starts and I'll be down in the RDS from early morning tallying and then generally hanging around to see what happens. If you happen to be in the area pop over to the Dublin South East pen and say hello.