Thursday, March 3, 2011

Review of election prediction

Just before the Dáil was dissolved I had a go at predicting the results of the general election. It seems only fair to review how I got on.

Fine Gael

Predicted 63, won 76. Well that was pretty far out. They did far better in both rural and urban areas than I thought. Four seats in Mayo and three in places like Wicklow, Cavan/Monaghan and Dublin South helped the cause. Pretty much everything that could have gone right did go right. A huge seat bonus over their 1st preference vote.


Predicted 42, won 37. Not too far off. With some better vote management there could have been another three or four seats. Looked like being closer to 30 a week before polling so a good recovery.

Fianna Fáil

Predicted 32, won 20. I had them holding 6 in Dublin when they only landed one. Elsewhere the swing to FG and gene-pool independents cost them dearly.

Sinn Féin

Predicted 14, won 14. Bang on! Except I went for two in Cavan/Monaghan and one in Wexford before the Wallace appearance and didn't see the Cork East or Sligo/North Leitrim ones.


Predicted 1, won 0. I thought they would hold Sargent's seat but they didn't. With less than 2% of the national vote the also lost state funding. Sad day for them.


Predicted 4, won 4. Woohoo! Exactly right.


Predicted 10, won 15. The hardest group to call right as in most places I have no local knowledge. Didn't think Ming would do it and Wallace hadn't declared when I did this.

Overall I'd have to give myself about a C on this. Did ok on the minor groupings but didn't see the big swing to FG or think that FF would have been so toxic on the day.

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