As usual the results of the Sunday Business Post poll have been leaked a few hours early. Today's figures, which were collected Tuesday-Thursday, show FG on a monstrous 38% with Labour leading the rest on 20% followed by FF 15%, SF 10%, Green 3% and Independents on 14%. The other main figure to note is that undecideds have dropped from 20% to 17% so the public are making their minds up.
The result that these polls indicate is Fine Gael forming a single party government, either through a small overall majority or else with the support of some of the right leaning independents such as Ross, Lowry and Lord Healy-Rae II. Back in 1982 FG won 39% of the vote and got 42% of the seats. But that was with the backdrop of FF winning 45% of the vote. With the nearest competition almost 20 points behind, FG will get a huge seat bonus with most of the last seats falling to them.
So where do the other parties go from here? Attacking Enda for being weak has failed, ignoring Enda has failed, attacking each other has failed. It seems to me that FG have taken a long hard look at the New Labour strategy from 1997 and it is working for them. Just stick to the message and ignore everything else going on around you. The big problem for FF, Lab and SF is the sharp focus of their campaigns on their respective leaders. FG have been smart in letting Bruton, Varadkar, Reilly and others take the lead showing it as a team effort.
There are still two weeks to go and in Irish politics, where there are 43 local elections happening around the country, anything could happen. But at present it is looking good for FG but they may be wondering have they peaked to soon or are they still building momentum.
Saturday, February 12, 2011
Friday, February 11, 2011
Campaign Diary Day 10 - Abortion
Well it was only a matter of time really. As I mentioned before, the abortion issue hasn't gone away and in today's Independent, that well known liberal conservative David Quinn, brought the issue back into sharp focus. Entitled "Any vote for Labour is a vote for abortion", Quinn's rant involves a lot of misrepresentation and twisting of opinions to suit his own view point.
Labour is not for abortion. Labour is for legislating in line with the X case. There is a huge difference between those two statements. The former implies that abortion on demand would become the norm. The latter states that if in government Labour would bring in laws that back up the rulings of the Supreme Court and the European Court. The Irish people have already rejected referendums on overturning X and so all you can say is that a vote for Labour is a vote for implementing the will of the majority of the people. The 1992 amendment that would remove the X case justification was rejected by 2-1. Since then it is most likely that views have moderated and were that wording to be put again it would be rejected even more strongly.
What is most annoying about this issue is the hypocrisy of parties and lobby groups such as the Iona Institute when dealing with constitutional rights. The crime of blasphemy, while anachronistic, was legislated for because it was in the constitution and the religious right welcomed the proposal because it closed a legal hole caused by lack of legislation. However, legislating in line with the X case, which is what the constitution says we should do, has been left open for almost 20 years.
Either the constitution is the primary document of law of the country or it isn't. You can't have it both ways. From my point of view, I am proud of the Labour Party's stance and look forward to legislation being brought in that respects the view of the majority, rather than continuing with the sham that panders to the Ionas, Cóirs and Youth Defences of this world.
Update (21:30) - this evening I got given a set of plastic rosary beads by a kind gentleman while canvassing in Sandymount to help save my soul. I wonder if I need to declare it on a SIPO return.
Labour is not for abortion. Labour is for legislating in line with the X case. There is a huge difference between those two statements. The former implies that abortion on demand would become the norm. The latter states that if in government Labour would bring in laws that back up the rulings of the Supreme Court and the European Court. The Irish people have already rejected referendums on overturning X and so all you can say is that a vote for Labour is a vote for implementing the will of the majority of the people. The 1992 amendment that would remove the X case justification was rejected by 2-1. Since then it is most likely that views have moderated and were that wording to be put again it would be rejected even more strongly.
What is most annoying about this issue is the hypocrisy of parties and lobby groups such as the Iona Institute when dealing with constitutional rights. The crime of blasphemy, while anachronistic, was legislated for because it was in the constitution and the religious right welcomed the proposal because it closed a legal hole caused by lack of legislation. However, legislating in line with the X case, which is what the constitution says we should do, has been left open for almost 20 years.
Either the constitution is the primary document of law of the country or it isn't. You can't have it both ways. From my point of view, I am proud of the Labour Party's stance and look forward to legislation being brought in that respects the view of the majority, rather than continuing with the sham that panders to the Ionas, Cóirs and Youth Defences of this world.
Update (21:30) - this evening I got given a set of plastic rosary beads by a kind gentleman while canvassing in Sandymount to help save my soul. I wonder if I need to declare it on a SIPO return.
Wednesday, February 9, 2011
Campaign Diary Day 7 - TV3 Debate
Like most of the political twonks in the country, I ditched last night's canvass a few minutes early to get to a TV to watch the first Leaders' Debate on TV3. After all the fuss over Enda Kenny's no show, it was good to finally get the show on the road and get some actual interaction between some of the leading politicians in the country. Over the course of an hour or so, Martin and Gilmore got stuck into each other in what was, surprisingly, a very entertaining debate.
Here are just a few observations having had a night to sleep on it.
Here are just a few observations having had a night to sleep on it.
- Vincent Browne showed that he can be well behaved and not harangue people. This was nearly the biggest surprise of the night.
- Micheal Martin has a brass neck of epic proportions. He did very well distancing himself from the current government despite Eamon Gilmore constantly referring to him as Minister.
- Gilmore came across as calm and collected which will stand him in good stead. For a long time he has been portrayed as a shouty firebrand and while his hardline support (me included) wished he got stuck in to Martin a bit more, the moderate stance will have played well to the middle ground, floating voter.
- Enda Kenny would have been destroyed by either of them. The 5 way will give Kenny a bit of match practice but the final two debates will leave him with nowhere to hide.
- Martin's performance vindicates his shafting of Brian Cowen. Had Cowen been debating Gilmore, Labour would be heading for an overall majority after the debate.
- Neither side lander a killer blow or made a major mistake. Both sides will be happy to have one debate under their belts and will be more "match fit" than the other leaders for the remaining debates.
Tuesday, February 8, 2011
Campaign Diary Day 5 and 6 - Canvassing
For years I hated the idea of canvassing. I didn't like the idea of cold calling on a door and trying to convince whoever answered the door that my preferred choice of candidate was best for them. I also didn't like the idea that if I was asked about party policy on some obscure issue that I would be expected to give a comprehensive response. So I just volunteered as a leaflet dropper, something I started off my political career doing in the early 1980s as a nipper.
Then in the 2004 local elections I went out knocking with Mary Freehill and discovered that it's not so scary. Most people are polite at when someone knocks at the door and don't ask awkward questions. Most of the time they are too busy doing something else to want to spend more than 20 seconds being asked for their vote. But it is important to be asked as the exit polls have shown that being asked for your vote and meeting the candidate personally are two of the main influences on how you mark your ballot paper.
While I wouldn't consider myself a master canvasser by any stretch, having witnessed the real hard sell from some in the final days of a campaign, there are some basic rules which should see you right if you decide to knock on people's doors.
So all in all, canvassing is a great way to get clued in to what the polulation at large are thinking. Being heavily involved in politics means we often don't see the wood for the trees and knocking on doors brings a big dose of reality back into the process. Sure, it won't make you as fit as a brisk leaflet drop for two hours, but it will open your eyes and mind to how other people live and think. Give it a go sometime!
Then in the 2004 local elections I went out knocking with Mary Freehill and discovered that it's not so scary. Most people are polite at when someone knocks at the door and don't ask awkward questions. Most of the time they are too busy doing something else to want to spend more than 20 seconds being asked for their vote. But it is important to be asked as the exit polls have shown that being asked for your vote and meeting the candidate personally are two of the main influences on how you mark your ballot paper.
While I wouldn't consider myself a master canvasser by any stretch, having witnessed the real hard sell from some in the final days of a campaign, there are some basic rules which should see you right if you decide to knock on people's doors.
- If you have never canvassed before, tag along with someone fairly experienced to learn the ropes. In dark areas or on streets with long driveways it can be safer to canvass in pairs even if both are used to canvassing.
- Always smile and look positive when the door is opened. As the old TV ad used to say first impressions do last.
- Present the canvass card or leaflet with the candidate's name and picture towards the person. It focuses them on what message you are trying to sell.
- Clearly state what you are doing: "I'm canvassing on behalf of Jim Murphy of the Monster Raving Loony Mad Party who is running in this constituency".
- Then take a second and see what reaction you are getting. Either the person will already be looking to close the door or will be looking for a chance to ask a question
or make a comment. Let them have their say - canvassing is a conversation not a broadcast medium. - If they don't do either of the above ask them a question: "Have you considered who you are going to vote for in the election?" People like being asked their opinion and so that should elicit some response. If it doesn't then you're best off just finishing up with a parting line "Well please consider giving Jim your number one".
- If the candidate is with you don't leave them alone at a door - they may get stuck and need help moving on to the next house.
- Always remain polite. If you disagree with someone, don't get in a fight. If you disagree with party policy, now is not the time to bring it up - you are acting as the salesman here!
- Make sure the printed material ends up in the person's hand. They may look at it before throwing it in the green bin.
So all in all, canvassing is a great way to get clued in to what the polulation at large are thinking. Being heavily involved in politics means we often don't see the wood for the trees and knocking on doors brings a big dose of reality back into the process. Sure, it won't make you as fit as a brisk leaflet drop for two hours, but it will open your eyes and mind to how other people live and think. Give it a go sometime!
Saturday, February 5, 2011
Campaign Diary Days 3 and 4 - Debates
The last couple of days have been dominated by the issues surrounding the number and format of the Leaders' Debates. The research shows that about one third of the electorate only make up their minds during the election campaign and that the set piece debates form a key part of their end decision. Whether we like it or not, the debates are important.
Micheál Martin, on the day of his election as FF leader, came out with a suggested debate schedule that would have had the leaders on TV practically every evening of the campaign. For obvious reasons this proposal was quickly vetoed by the other parties and the media itself. The one element of his proposal that looks like it will be retained, and rightly so in my view, is the díospóireacht as Gaeilge to be held on TG4.
Despite statements saying he would debate anyone, anywhere at anytime, Enda Kenny has ruled out appearing on TV3's debate scheduled for next Tuesday where he would face tough questioning from Vincent Browne while sharing a podium with Martin and Gilmore. The squirming and spinning by FG in an effort to get out of this debate is pretty hilarious. About a week ago Browne announced that he was inviting all the leaders to a debate and that if Enda didn't show up he would proceed anyway with an empty chair for the FG leader. Alan Shatter, FG's rep on the show that evening, announced that it couldn't happen as it would be a breach of the fairness in broadcasting regulations. OF course this was like a red rag to a bull for Browne and he has pushed ahead with the debate.
Then on Friday Kenny categorically stated that he would not participate in the TV debate due to a statement made by Browne about 4 months ago relating to suicide. Within hours, Browne stated on his show that he would step aside as moderator of the debate if the FG leader would attend but the Taoiseach in waiting still refused to attend. Then yesterday afternoon Kenny re-affirmed his plan not to attend by saying the empty chair at the debate would represent all who have had to emigrate during the recession.
This stance by FG is farcical. If Kenny wants the top job in the country then he should be out front, without handlers and spin doctors, answering the hard questions. It is daft to suggest that Vincent Browne has a grudge against FG. Well actually it's not, but he has an equally large grudge against all political parties - that is what makes him such an effective interviewer. He is able to challenge both the left and the right equally strongly.
The suicide issue also needs to be examined. On the night in question, Browne said to his panel "Is there any truth in the rumour that that Enda has been sent into a darkened room with a bottle of whiskey and a revolver?" after another poll had shown Kenny's approval ratings to be extremely low. While this turn of phrase is somewhat common in talking about political careers coming to an end and equivalent to "Is Enda going to fall on his sword", it could be construed as reducing the issue of suicide to a joke. Browne apologized on his show the next day and wrote to Kenny apologizing for any offence. And that's where the story ended until the other day.
When Kenny brought up the suicide defence he opened a huge can of worms. Not only did he not object to the comments publicly at the time but he accepted Browne's apology. Secondly the BAI rejected a complaint about the show, noting that TV3 and Browne's response to the statement was sufficient. Finally, after Bertie's famous suicide gaff, Kenny proceeded to debate against him in the Dáil repeatedly without making any statement of offence.
The entire debate debacle has shown Kenny in a very bad light. If he is not brave enough to take on Martin and Gilmore while being prodded by Browne, what hope has he on the EU and World stage when elected Taoiseach? Running away and making inane excuses gets you nowhere. Grow a backbone!
Micheál Martin, on the day of his election as FF leader, came out with a suggested debate schedule that would have had the leaders on TV practically every evening of the campaign. For obvious reasons this proposal was quickly vetoed by the other parties and the media itself. The one element of his proposal that looks like it will be retained, and rightly so in my view, is the díospóireacht as Gaeilge to be held on TG4.
Despite statements saying he would debate anyone, anywhere at anytime, Enda Kenny has ruled out appearing on TV3's debate scheduled for next Tuesday where he would face tough questioning from Vincent Browne while sharing a podium with Martin and Gilmore. The squirming and spinning by FG in an effort to get out of this debate is pretty hilarious. About a week ago Browne announced that he was inviting all the leaders to a debate and that if Enda didn't show up he would proceed anyway with an empty chair for the FG leader. Alan Shatter, FG's rep on the show that evening, announced that it couldn't happen as it would be a breach of the fairness in broadcasting regulations. OF course this was like a red rag to a bull for Browne and he has pushed ahead with the debate.
Then on Friday Kenny categorically stated that he would not participate in the TV debate due to a statement made by Browne about 4 months ago relating to suicide. Within hours, Browne stated on his show that he would step aside as moderator of the debate if the FG leader would attend but the Taoiseach in waiting still refused to attend. Then yesterday afternoon Kenny re-affirmed his plan not to attend by saying the empty chair at the debate would represent all who have had to emigrate during the recession.
This stance by FG is farcical. If Kenny wants the top job in the country then he should be out front, without handlers and spin doctors, answering the hard questions. It is daft to suggest that Vincent Browne has a grudge against FG. Well actually it's not, but he has an equally large grudge against all political parties - that is what makes him such an effective interviewer. He is able to challenge both the left and the right equally strongly.
The suicide issue also needs to be examined. On the night in question, Browne said to his panel "Is there any truth in the rumour that that Enda has been sent into a darkened room with a bottle of whiskey and a revolver?" after another poll had shown Kenny's approval ratings to be extremely low. While this turn of phrase is somewhat common in talking about political careers coming to an end and equivalent to "Is Enda going to fall on his sword", it could be construed as reducing the issue of suicide to a joke. Browne apologized on his show the next day and wrote to Kenny apologizing for any offence. And that's where the story ended until the other day.
When Kenny brought up the suicide defence he opened a huge can of worms. Not only did he not object to the comments publicly at the time but he accepted Browne's apology. Secondly the BAI rejected a complaint about the show, noting that TV3 and Browne's response to the statement was sufficient. Finally, after Bertie's famous suicide gaff, Kenny proceeded to debate against him in the Dáil repeatedly without making any statement of offence.
The entire debate debacle has shown Kenny in a very bad light. If he is not brave enough to take on Martin and Gilmore while being prodded by Browne, what hope has he on the EU and World stage when elected Taoiseach? Running away and making inane excuses gets you nowhere. Grow a backbone!
Thursday, February 3, 2011
Campaign Diary - Days 1 and 2
Those who are regular readers will note that every so often I do a bit of analysis on opinion polls. However, three polls released within 24 hours is getting a bit much. Overall the polls show FG in early-mid 30s, Lab early 20s, FF mid teens with SF a little bit behind with Others making up the difference. What worries me slightly about the spate of polls is that we end up moving to the American style of politics where parties are continually chasing the polling figures and reacting to public opinion. While there will always be a bit of that, Irish politics has tended to be a bit more policy and ideology based.
A winter election was always going to bring bad weather but I had hoped it would hold off for a little while longer. While I have never been involved in the postering part of the campaign, it can't be fun to be up a ladder in the wind and rain that rolled in today. This evening I was designated as the coordinator of the leaflet drop in the Rathgar area. At about 6 the rain really started pouring down and I was sorely tempted to cancel the event. However we braved the elements and our team of 5 hardy souls hit about 70% of our designated areas before the brewing storm got the better of us.
It doesn't seem to be going well for constituency rival Chris Andrews on the legal use of a vehice front. After being clamped on the afternoon of the Dáil dissolution, this evening while trudging up Rathgar Avenue a van decked out in FF logos and Chris' face on the side came racing down without a single light on. Luckily the traffic coming the other direction were blinded by Chris' smile and forced to stop before careening into the Andrewsmobile.
Depending on the options on post-work pints tomorrow, my next outing on the doors will be down in Ringsend tomorrow evening or Saturday morning before cheering on Ireland in the 6 Nations against Italy.
A winter election was always going to bring bad weather but I had hoped it would hold off for a little while longer. While I have never been involved in the postering part of the campaign, it can't be fun to be up a ladder in the wind and rain that rolled in today. This evening I was designated as the coordinator of the leaflet drop in the Rathgar area. At about 6 the rain really started pouring down and I was sorely tempted to cancel the event. However we braved the elements and our team of 5 hardy souls hit about 70% of our designated areas before the brewing storm got the better of us.
It doesn't seem to be going well for constituency rival Chris Andrews on the legal use of a vehice front. After being clamped on the afternoon of the Dáil dissolution, this evening while trudging up Rathgar Avenue a van decked out in FF logos and Chris' face on the side came racing down without a single light on. Luckily the traffic coming the other direction were blinded by Chris' smile and forced to stop before careening into the Andrewsmobile.
Depending on the options on post-work pints tomorrow, my next outing on the doors will be down in Ringsend tomorrow evening or Saturday morning before cheering on Ireland in the 6 Nations against Italy.
Wednesday, February 2, 2011
Campaign Diary - Day 0
In my real life I'm a C programmer and we count from zero. It's just the way we are, being obsessed with integral things rather than using the natural numbering scheme and starting from 1. Hence yesterday, when Brian Cowen finally went up to the Phoenix Park and got the President to dissolve the Dáil, counts as day zero in my world.
The big item was the dissolution and the speeches from each of the party leaders. Cowen was surprisingly statesmanlike but then again as he is retiring he probably didn't feel the need to stick in a very partisan speech. Kenny and Gilmore both got straight into the election mode outlining their plans for government and all the amazing things that would happen once the reins of power had been handed over. While Kenny focussed more on FG's own stance, Gilmore went on the attack against both FF and FG and their right-wing, conservative duality.
The two speeches that interested me most were the Green and Sinn Féin contributions. Gormley, acutely aware that there may be no Green voice in the next Dáil set out his party's main achievements and put down some challenges to the future Taoiseach and Tanaiste (Kenny and Gilmore) about reform. O'Caolain, for once brief and to the point, got a good parting dig in at the Greens and again highlighted SF's stance against the EU/IMF.
All in all it was a bit unsatisfactory. For a set piece that has been on the cards for ages and had been fixed for over a week there didn't seem to be much in the way of oratory. In a way you wish that someone like Michael D Higgins had been given one last hurrah to deliver a suitably profound, erudite and at times funny speech wrapping up what has been a fairly disastrous Dáil over the last 3.5 years.
On the media front, I still think RTE's new show The 11th Hour needs a fair bit of work. I watched the 1st episode on RTE player and then watched last night's up to the "comedy" bit before switching over to Vincent Browne. However, it is worth noting that their go live date was brought back a few weeks with the early election. Also worth noting that early editions of The Colbert Report were also ropey despite the host's previous experiences on the Daily Show. It took the guts of a year to settle into a pattern that was comfortable in its own skin.
Speaking of Vincenzo Castano, it was interesting to see his all female panel on last night's show. There was minimal haranguing between the candidates but you felt for a while as though SF's Kathleen Funchion was only there to make up the numbers as there were several 10 minute segments where she didn't get a word in. It was also very brave of Noirín Hegarty to appear on the show considering the news about the Tribune.
The big item was the dissolution and the speeches from each of the party leaders. Cowen was surprisingly statesmanlike but then again as he is retiring he probably didn't feel the need to stick in a very partisan speech. Kenny and Gilmore both got straight into the election mode outlining their plans for government and all the amazing things that would happen once the reins of power had been handed over. While Kenny focussed more on FG's own stance, Gilmore went on the attack against both FF and FG and their right-wing, conservative duality.
The two speeches that interested me most were the Green and Sinn Féin contributions. Gormley, acutely aware that there may be no Green voice in the next Dáil set out his party's main achievements and put down some challenges to the future Taoiseach and Tanaiste (Kenny and Gilmore) about reform. O'Caolain, for once brief and to the point, got a good parting dig in at the Greens and again highlighted SF's stance against the EU/IMF.
All in all it was a bit unsatisfactory. For a set piece that has been on the cards for ages and had been fixed for over a week there didn't seem to be much in the way of oratory. In a way you wish that someone like Michael D Higgins had been given one last hurrah to deliver a suitably profound, erudite and at times funny speech wrapping up what has been a fairly disastrous Dáil over the last 3.5 years.
On the media front, I still think RTE's new show The 11th Hour needs a fair bit of work. I watched the 1st episode on RTE player and then watched last night's up to the "comedy" bit before switching over to Vincent Browne. However, it is worth noting that their go live date was brought back a few weeks with the early election. Also worth noting that early editions of The Colbert Report were also ropey despite the host's previous experiences on the Daily Show. It took the guts of a year to settle into a pattern that was comfortable in its own skin.
Speaking of Vincenzo Castano, it was interesting to see his all female panel on last night's show. There was minimal haranguing between the candidates but you felt for a while as though SF's Kathleen Funchion was only there to make up the numbers as there were several 10 minute segments where she didn't get a word in. It was also very brave of Noirín Hegarty to appear on the show considering the news about the Tribune.
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