So much for the motion of confidence in Brian Cowen stabilizing the country. Following on from Micheál Martin's resignation after his failed coup, the poor Taoiseach has lost another five of his ministers in the last day. There are now six departments with Cowen as acting minister to go along with his responsibilities as Taoiseach.
Of the remaining ministers it seems unlikely that Lenihan or Coughlan will depart nor the Green duo. Mary Hanafin, despite coming out against Cowen has hung on in Tourism and I don't see her bailing either. Dev Óg is needed to keep the FF flag flying in the west. This just leaves Brendan Smith who could go either way and Pat Carey who due to his allegiances to Hanafin may just stick it out despite being in serious danger of loosing his seat in Dublin North West.
Promoting backbenchers or current junior ministers to these positions would be the final act of cynicism of this Government. While they won't qualify for pensions for ministerial service, it is farcical to suggest that over a 3 month period (1 until the election, 1 during the campaign and 1 in caretaker mode until the new government is installed) these people could reform and rejuvenate their departments. Spreading the load amongst the remaining ministers is the only viable option.
Thursday, January 20, 2011
Friday, January 14, 2011
Confidence tricks
This afternoon Labour announced that they were putting down a motion of no confidence in the government in their private members time on 25/26 of the month. This comes a few days after the Sinn Féin led Technical Group's motion of no confidence in the Taoiseach which would not be on the order of business until some time in March. This is a significant move for several reasons.
Firstly, in the normal course of events, a Government takes the motion on their time in the house, puts an amendment that turns it into a vote of confidence and then passes that. It does it as quickly as possible to stop the story from lingering on for ages. However, the Chief Whip, John Curran, has indicated that the motion will not be taken until Labour's private members time. This strongly suggests that he doesn't think he has the numbers to successfully amend the motion from a no confidence to confidence one.
Bear in mind that no matter what happens in the next week or so there will be an election in March or early April as the Greens are leaving once the Finance Bill is passed. There is a school of thought that the motion should have been held in reserve until the Finance Bill is passed and that would either force the Greens to leave before the Climate and Donations bills get passed or renege on their promise to depart. Even if they didn't leave the three by-elections have been promised for the 1st quarter 2011 anyway and once they have been won by opposition parties (1 each for FG, L and SF probably) the game is up.
The pressure is now heaped on the potential Fianna Fáil rebels as they have to decide soon what their course of action is. I am not sure what the procedures are for electing a new leader in FF but I'm assuming there is a period of time for nominations while the existing deputy leader takes charge in a temporary capacity. Now, as I said yesterday I actually don't care who is in charge of FF, but the timing of the coup and how it plays out makes for entertaining viewing. There are a few ways the next little while can play out. If I have missed some please post them in the comments section.
None of these outcomes are particularly good for the government parties and some are disastrous. On the other hand, they are all pretty positive for the opposition parties, especially Labour, who have to go on the offensive against both FG and SF to avoid being squeezed from both left and right. Therefore it comes as no surprise that Fine Gael have come out saying that this motion was badly timed and ill-advised. One only has to think back to the summer to see FG's track record on badly timed confidence motions though. During the run up to the motion of no confidence Richard Bruton made his ill-fated move against Enda Kenny. It seems unlikely that Joan Burton is going to launch a heave against Eamon Gilmore over the weekend but you never know - stranger things have happened.
Firstly, in the normal course of events, a Government takes the motion on their time in the house, puts an amendment that turns it into a vote of confidence and then passes that. It does it as quickly as possible to stop the story from lingering on for ages. However, the Chief Whip, John Curran, has indicated that the motion will not be taken until Labour's private members time. This strongly suggests that he doesn't think he has the numbers to successfully amend the motion from a no confidence to confidence one.
Bear in mind that no matter what happens in the next week or so there will be an election in March or early April as the Greens are leaving once the Finance Bill is passed. There is a school of thought that the motion should have been held in reserve until the Finance Bill is passed and that would either force the Greens to leave before the Climate and Donations bills get passed or renege on their promise to depart. Even if they didn't leave the three by-elections have been promised for the 1st quarter 2011 anyway and once they have been won by opposition parties (1 each for FG, L and SF probably) the game is up.
The pressure is now heaped on the potential Fianna Fáil rebels as they have to decide soon what their course of action is. I am not sure what the procedures are for electing a new leader in FF but I'm assuming there is a period of time for nominations while the existing deputy leader takes charge in a temporary capacity. Now, as I said yesterday I actually don't care who is in charge of FF, but the timing of the coup and how it plays out makes for entertaining viewing. There are a few ways the next little while can play out. If I have missed some please post them in the comments section.
- Cowen goes up to the Áras over the weekend and dissolves the Dáil and we have a general election on 11th February or so. FF couldn't oust him in the middle of the campaign so Cowen would lead them into the election.
- FF circle the wagons, leave Cowen intact, and survive the motion. This forces the backbenchers such as Chris Andrews and John McGuinness, who have recently been distancing themselves from Government, to publicly back the Taoiseach.
- The heave proceeds but fails to oust Cowen. The Brutus character(s) (Martin, Hanafin or Lenihan) has to resign from Cabinet and this leaves a very damaged FF heading into the election. It also makes surviving the no confidence motion more difficult as the rebels may not vote to save Cowen.
- The heave succeeds and Coughlan becomes acting leader. Based on Lowry and JHR's statements about not supporting another FF Taoiseach, Cowen has to stay in the job. The motion of confidence then requires FF TDs who voted against Cowen being in charge of their party to vote in favour of him running the country.
- The heave succeeds and Cowen then heads to the Áras. The new leader is elected at the end of the first week of the election campaign and barely has time to prepare for the TV debates.
None of these outcomes are particularly good for the government parties and some are disastrous. On the other hand, they are all pretty positive for the opposition parties, especially Labour, who have to go on the offensive against both FG and SF to avoid being squeezed from both left and right. Therefore it comes as no surprise that Fine Gael have come out saying that this motion was badly timed and ill-advised. One only has to think back to the summer to see FG's track record on badly timed confidence motions though. During the run up to the motion of no confidence Richard Bruton made his ill-fated move against Enda Kenny. It seems unlikely that Joan Burton is going to launch a heave against Eamon Gilmore over the weekend but you never know - stranger things have happened.
Thursday, January 13, 2011
Fianna who cares
For some bizarre reason every commentator, every blogger and every tweeter seems to be up in arms about the possible heave in Fianna Fáil. Sure, a change at the top in FF will precipitate an election perhaps a few weeks earlier than expected but beyond that I don't get why people care so much. FF are a busted flush and no changing of the guard will save them in the election.
Much is made about how the Cowen and Coughlan image will damage various FF candidates chances of being re-elected. Are we really to believe that a party with Dara Calleary and Barry Andrews at the controls will suddenly have a massive increase in popularity? Do they really think the public are that forgetful? I don't care who leads FF, all I care about is that they are booted from office and their lackeys are removed from all the quangos.
Much is made about how the Cowen and Coughlan image will damage various FF candidates chances of being re-elected. Are we really to believe that a party with Dara Calleary and Barry Andrews at the controls will suddenly have a massive increase in popularity? Do they really think the public are that forgetful? I don't care who leads FF, all I care about is that they are booted from office and their lackeys are removed from all the quangos.
Sunday, January 9, 2011
International edition
It's been a while since I seriously commented on anything international so here's a few things that have been crossing my mind in the last few days.
Sudan
Today Sudan is holding a referendum that will split the country into two parts if passed. The mainly Christian and smaller (in area and population) region wants to secede from the mainly Muslim and larger north. Of course the major issue with the split is that the southern region has almost all of Sudan's oil reserves and to a lesser extent control of the waters (limited that they are) of the White Nile. It is also not exactly clear where the border between the two Sudan's will be if the split happens. Migrant farming groups move around with their flocks within the border region and the placing of a fixed border with fencing could lead to significant issues.Arizona
Over Stateside, the gun attack in Tuscon where 6 were left dead and a Congresswoman was left in a critical condition is an appalling story. Since I only really follow US news through the Daily Show these days I can't really comment on whether this is a Sarah Palin/Glen Beck induced event or just a random crazy killing. However, to my mind at least, it shows that the US is a dangerous place for those involved in the political process at the moment. Tensions are high and need to be dialed back about a dozen notches for everyone's sake.Haiti
It has been just a year since the massive earthquake in Haiti that killed several hundred thousand people and left millions homeless. Unfortunately the news from that part of the world is that many are still in dire straits with poor shelter and lack of basic amenities. I guess like the 2004 Tsunami and the 2008 Myanmar Typhoon, once the immediate catastrophe has finished, the rest of the world moves on and leaves the inhabitants to pick up the pieces.Thursday, January 6, 2011
I am not Nostradamus
In today's Irish Times there is a pretty emphatic statement on a topic I discussed last February. Mary Hanafin and Barry Andrews will both be staying put in Dún Laoghaire for the General Election.
The piece does have a few uncharacteristic jabs from Hanafin at both Andrews and PBP's Richard Boyd-Barrett, hinting that since the Andrews' come from Goatstown in Dublin South that perhaps Barry should have moved and that local issues like the 46A bus route are not going to be important. What is most interesting in the article is the way both Fine Gael and Labour are completely ignored. One wonders if Hanafin is already calling it 3 seats between FG and L with the 4th being a scrap between the two FF and PBP.
Seems my powers of prediction have failed me. I shudder to think how many of my other predictions will come wrong in the next few months!
The piece does have a few uncharacteristic jabs from Hanafin at both Andrews and PBP's Richard Boyd-Barrett, hinting that since the Andrews' come from Goatstown in Dublin South that perhaps Barry should have moved and that local issues like the 46A bus route are not going to be important. What is most interesting in the article is the way both Fine Gael and Labour are completely ignored. One wonders if Hanafin is already calling it 3 seats between FG and L with the 4th being a scrap between the two FF and PBP.
Seems my powers of prediction have failed me. I shudder to think how many of my other predictions will come wrong in the next few months!
Tuesday, January 4, 2011
Dail, heal thyself!
One of the big talking points in the last month, apart from the weather, the date of the election, Jean Byrne's outfits (that might be covered by the first topic), Santa and the IMF/EU has been the institution of the Seanad. About 18 months ago, Enda Kenny went on what was seen as a bit of a solo run when he announced that FG policy was to get rid of the second chamber. More recently the Seanad has had a rough time with the Callely shenanigans, not to mention the continued existence of Donie Cassidy's political career. Then over the festive period, Labour joined the ranks of the dissatisfied calling time on the Seanad followed up by Fianna Fáil's suggestion that a referendum to disband could be held at the same time as the General Election.
Personally, I am not in favour of the drastic step of turning Ireland into a unicameral state. I feel we would be better off reforming the Seanad into a modern, fit for purpose institution as part of a larger set of reforms of the entire political system. The Seanad, even with all its flaws, still produces more considered debate than the Dáil with all its political point scoring and restrictive standing orders ever could.
The composition of the Seanad is usually the first objection to its continued existance. The 6 university senators are seen as the representatives of an elite, the 43 senators elected by the city and county councillors are seen as wannabe or failed TDs and the less said about the 11 appointees the better. Instead I would propose a fixed term Seanad of 5 years with elections held the same time as the local and European elections. 48 senators would be elected on a nationwide poll with constituencies the same as the Europeans with 4 constituencies of 12 seats. The timing of this election would alleviate the problem of rejected TDs retiring to the Seanad for a term. You could also add rules that any candidate for the Seanad elections could not run for the Europeans to avoid the problem of some candidates having a much higher profile in the campaign and also forbid current Senators from running for the Dáil without resigning their seat first.
The remaining 12 would remain as appointees but only with the unanimous agreement of the leaders of the parties and technical groups in the Dáil. This would allow representation of minorities, immigrants and emigrants, the North and other groups like the current vocational panels are meant to. The unanimity would go a long way to avoid political appointees. This newly constituted Seanad would then have an extended remit to examine EU directives that require legislation here, be a driver for further political and social reform and act as a proper check on the power of the Government. To this end the restrictions in Article 21 on Money Bills would need to be removed.
One must also bear in mind what the abolition of the Seanad actually means in practice. Without a second chamber, due to the extremely strict whipping in the Dáil, the Government could effectively push through any legislation it wanted in any timeframe without needing to have an open debate. Through strict control on Dáil sessions, management of committees and judicious use of the guillotine, the government of the day would effectively have free reign apart from the constitutional role given to the President. It is interesting to note that a major revamping of Dáil procedures and standing orders has not accompanied any abolitionist's plan. The proposals from FG and now Labour are nothing more than a naked power grab by the lower chamber feeding on the public disgust with politics in general at the moment.
The other crazy part of this story is the proposed timetable being suggested by Fianna Fáil of holding the referendum on the same day as the General Election. The Seanad is one of the key institutions of the State and appears in many articles in the Constitution as well as numerous pieces of legislation. Considering how difficult it has been to come up with the wording for the Children's Rights amendment, not to mention how it seems impossible to get rid of the Blasphemy clause in the Constitution, it seems implausible that legislation could be prepared in the short timescale that would not end up making a mess of things, especially when the Government claim to be wholly focused on the Finance and Welfare bills.
Yes, the entire political system needs reform from accountable local government all the way up to the role of the President but we need to take a holistic approach. Piecemeal reform will get us nowhere and unilaterally dumping the Seanad as some sort of populist, opportunistic token at reform is one of the worst possible approaches to take.
Personally, I am not in favour of the drastic step of turning Ireland into a unicameral state. I feel we would be better off reforming the Seanad into a modern, fit for purpose institution as part of a larger set of reforms of the entire political system. The Seanad, even with all its flaws, still produces more considered debate than the Dáil with all its political point scoring and restrictive standing orders ever could.
The composition of the Seanad is usually the first objection to its continued existance. The 6 university senators are seen as the representatives of an elite, the 43 senators elected by the city and county councillors are seen as wannabe or failed TDs and the less said about the 11 appointees the better. Instead I would propose a fixed term Seanad of 5 years with elections held the same time as the local and European elections. 48 senators would be elected on a nationwide poll with constituencies the same as the Europeans with 4 constituencies of 12 seats. The timing of this election would alleviate the problem of rejected TDs retiring to the Seanad for a term. You could also add rules that any candidate for the Seanad elections could not run for the Europeans to avoid the problem of some candidates having a much higher profile in the campaign and also forbid current Senators from running for the Dáil without resigning their seat first.
The remaining 12 would remain as appointees but only with the unanimous agreement of the leaders of the parties and technical groups in the Dáil. This would allow representation of minorities, immigrants and emigrants, the North and other groups like the current vocational panels are meant to. The unanimity would go a long way to avoid political appointees. This newly constituted Seanad would then have an extended remit to examine EU directives that require legislation here, be a driver for further political and social reform and act as a proper check on the power of the Government. To this end the restrictions in Article 21 on Money Bills would need to be removed.
One must also bear in mind what the abolition of the Seanad actually means in practice. Without a second chamber, due to the extremely strict whipping in the Dáil, the Government could effectively push through any legislation it wanted in any timeframe without needing to have an open debate. Through strict control on Dáil sessions, management of committees and judicious use of the guillotine, the government of the day would effectively have free reign apart from the constitutional role given to the President. It is interesting to note that a major revamping of Dáil procedures and standing orders has not accompanied any abolitionist's plan. The proposals from FG and now Labour are nothing more than a naked power grab by the lower chamber feeding on the public disgust with politics in general at the moment.
The other crazy part of this story is the proposed timetable being suggested by Fianna Fáil of holding the referendum on the same day as the General Election. The Seanad is one of the key institutions of the State and appears in many articles in the Constitution as well as numerous pieces of legislation. Considering how difficult it has been to come up with the wording for the Children's Rights amendment, not to mention how it seems impossible to get rid of the Blasphemy clause in the Constitution, it seems implausible that legislation could be prepared in the short timescale that would not end up making a mess of things, especially when the Government claim to be wholly focused on the Finance and Welfare bills.
Yes, the entire political system needs reform from accountable local government all the way up to the role of the President but we need to take a holistic approach. Piecemeal reform will get us nowhere and unilaterally dumping the Seanad as some sort of populist, opportunistic token at reform is one of the worst possible approaches to take.
Saturday, January 1, 2011
Going Forward in 2011
New Year means resolutions and predictions, most of which will be abandoned by the middle of January. So in keeping with the spirit of the season here are my brief guesses on the next year.
General Election
The General Election will be some time in March. FF won't do as badly as polls suggest, Labour not as well with the end result around FG 63, FF 45, Lab 38, SF 10, Others 10 leading to a substantial majority for FG/Lab.Presidential Election
David Norris will manage to get 4 councils to support his nomination but his transfers will help Michael D Higgins to just take the Áras from FG.The Economy
The rising tide of European economies will drag Ireland back into low growth but without much in the way of job creation.The North
Business as usual heading into the Assembly elections with SF looking to become the largest party and hold the 1st Minister position but being pipped at the post by DUP. Other Unionists and SDLP fail to make ground.Dublin
The Dublin Mayor elections will not happen and the greater Dublin area will continue to suffer due to lack of joined up thinking. Metro North and the Interconnector will continue to be postponed but the Incinerator will push ahead.TCD
Paddy Prendergast to be elected Provost with a fairly sizeable victory with no outside candidate to come even close. Well founded mutterings of closed shop to be heard.Sport
Leinster to win the HEC and Magners League, Ireland to get to the Semis of the Rugby World Cup, Bohs to find a sugar-daddy to bail them out, Ireland to loose in a Euro-2012 playoff, Down to beat Kerry for Sam, Cork to retain McCarthy.Online
I'll keep blogging and tweeting much to the annoyance of my missus. In 365 days I'll come back and see how well my crystal ball was working. Happy New Year to all!!
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