So Bertie gives the country a final Christmas present by announcing that he won't run in the upcoming general election. While this comes as no big surprise, given that he would loose all his pensions if he stayed on in the next Dáil as an opposition back bencher. Also given that he'd face a tough battle in Dublin Central to get elected, it is good to have closure on the Ahern era.
While he deserves some credit for the Good Friday Agreement and the peace process in general, on domestic issues history will not look on Bertie so kindly. The tribunals, the digouts and the lack of bank account show the contempt in which he held the position of Taoiseach and the people of Ireland. The social-partnership scam and other buy-offs like benchmarking and SSIAs have been shown up as the folly that they are.
Adding Bertie to the list of other rats deserting the ship such as Dermot Ahern and Noel Dempsey is somewhat satisfying. What would have been better would be for him to have run in the election and let the people of Dublin Central have their say by not re-electing him. Hopefully next up will be Mary Harney.
Friday, December 31, 2010
Wednesday, December 22, 2010
Ironic or Hypocritical
In the UN yesterday a vote was passed 93-55 (with 27 abstentions) to re-insert a reference to sexual orientation in a resolution about killing minority groups. The resolution mainly focuses on ethnicity and religion, but originally had sexual orientation as one of the grounds for identifying a minority group. This mention had previously been removed at the behest of various Arab and African nations. So far so good. All progressive actions apart from the 55 dissenters.
But then up speaks Zimbabwe with the most outrageous statement effectively equating homosexuality with bestiality and paedophilia. And without even a hint or irony the ambassador continued "n our view, what adult people do in their private capacity, by mutual consent, does not need agreement or rejection by governments" which seems like a pretty open minded statement. But then he closes out the sentence with an extra clause "where such practices are legally proscribed" which pretty much contradicts the entire first half of the sentence.
Surely legally proscribing something is exactly the sort of rejection of an action carried out by consenting adults in their private capacity that he doesn't see the need for. Now either this is stupidity which makes it ironic or hypocrisy which makes it disgusting. Either which way, Zimbabwe has gone even further down in my estimation - not that it was particularly high in the first place.
For those that haven't seen it here's another African country's take on homosexuality. Funny but depressing as hell.
(Hat tip to Bernard Cantillon for the link to the original article.)
But then up speaks Zimbabwe with the most outrageous statement effectively equating homosexuality with bestiality and paedophilia. And without even a hint or irony the ambassador continued "n our view, what adult people do in their private capacity, by mutual consent, does not need agreement or rejection by governments" which seems like a pretty open minded statement. But then he closes out the sentence with an extra clause "where such practices are legally proscribed" which pretty much contradicts the entire first half of the sentence.
Surely legally proscribing something is exactly the sort of rejection of an action carried out by consenting adults in their private capacity that he doesn't see the need for. Now either this is stupidity which makes it ironic or hypocrisy which makes it disgusting. Either which way, Zimbabwe has gone even further down in my estimation - not that it was particularly high in the first place.
For those that haven't seen it here's another African country's take on homosexuality. Funny but depressing as hell.
(Hat tip to Bernard Cantillon for the link to the original article.)
Friday, December 17, 2010
ECHR vs Ireland
Yesterday the ECHR returned a judgment against Ireland on that old issue, abortion. Without going into great detail, mainly because I'm not a lawyer, the court upheld the position of the Irish courts where they said that legislation was required to clarify when abortion is legal in Ireland. The problems arose due to the X case in the early 90s and more recently with the C case.
Personally, I am in favour of a pretty open abortion policy, pretty much on demand up to 24 weeks. It's not like abortions will be made compulsory, those who object on moral grounds can choose to have as many children as they want. If a woman who finds herself pregnant really doesn't want to have a child is it better to follow through with the termination or bring an unwanted child into the world? There are already enough children in poverty, neglected or in state care in this country.
The main downside of this decision is that it brings abortion right back to the front of politics in Ireland. With an election looming, the last thing that we need is for SPUC and Youth Defence to hijack the election. The election has to be about financial issues and political reform and so any focus on abortion is just going to be a distraction. Of course attitudes in Ireland on the substantive issue have softened and the Pro Life campaign might find their message not being so warmly received, especially in the under-40 category.
The other issue is that it will bring the anti-EU and anti-Lisbon people back into play pointing out how this is just Europe sticking their nose into an internal matters and that we had guarantees on abortion. This neatly ignores the facts that the ECHR has nothing to do with the EU and that the ECHR is just reinforcing the judgments of Irish courts.
Personally, I am in favour of a pretty open abortion policy, pretty much on demand up to 24 weeks. It's not like abortions will be made compulsory, those who object on moral grounds can choose to have as many children as they want. If a woman who finds herself pregnant really doesn't want to have a child is it better to follow through with the termination or bring an unwanted child into the world? There are already enough children in poverty, neglected or in state care in this country.
The main downside of this decision is that it brings abortion right back to the front of politics in Ireland. With an election looming, the last thing that we need is for SPUC and Youth Defence to hijack the election. The election has to be about financial issues and political reform and so any focus on abortion is just going to be a distraction. Of course attitudes in Ireland on the substantive issue have softened and the Pro Life campaign might find their message not being so warmly received, especially in the under-40 category.
The other issue is that it will bring the anti-EU and anti-Lisbon people back into play pointing out how this is just Europe sticking their nose into an internal matters and that we had guarantees on abortion. This neatly ignores the facts that the ECHR has nothing to do with the EU and that the ECHR is just reinforcing the judgments of Irish courts.
Monday, December 6, 2010
Another call to patriotic duty?
Tomorrow afternoon we get to hear Brian Lenihan's final budget as Minister for Finance. Of course it's not really his budget anymore as the EU/IMF have effectively provided him with some figures to wrap up in English. We already know a reasonable amount of the contents of the Minister's speech, the details on tax credit reductions, tax bands, PRSI reform and some form of property tax are the items I will be most looking out for.
Depending on what Michael Lowry and Jackie Healy-Rae come out with this evening, the most important thing to look out for during the first round of speeches is who exactly is in the chamber. Were Mattie McGrath or John McGuinness to be absent then that sends a strong signal that the election has started. Similarly, Lucinda Creighton's absence can be taken as a sign that the vote will be carried.
It will also be good to hear Michael Noonan giving the budget riposte from the FG benches. One of my favourite memories as a young fella with only a passing interest in politics was Noonan's response to a budget during the 1st Gulf War where he described the various cuts as Scud Missiles fired at the poorest in society. His turn of phrase will be a marked improvement on the humming and hawing of Richard Bruton who despite always homing in on the important figures, never really managed to land proper blows on the Minister.
Finally I hope that RTE do the right thing and finally cover all four of the main speeches rather than cutting away to their panel as soon as Lenihan finishes. The people have a right to see the opposition spokespersons putting their point as one of them is likely to end up being the Minister for Finance in early 2011 who is going to have to implement the mess that the current government leave behind.
Depending on what Michael Lowry and Jackie Healy-Rae come out with this evening, the most important thing to look out for during the first round of speeches is who exactly is in the chamber. Were Mattie McGrath or John McGuinness to be absent then that sends a strong signal that the election has started. Similarly, Lucinda Creighton's absence can be taken as a sign that the vote will be carried.
It will also be good to hear Michael Noonan giving the budget riposte from the FG benches. One of my favourite memories as a young fella with only a passing interest in politics was Noonan's response to a budget during the 1st Gulf War where he described the various cuts as Scud Missiles fired at the poorest in society. His turn of phrase will be a marked improvement on the humming and hawing of Richard Bruton who despite always homing in on the important figures, never really managed to land proper blows on the Minister.
Finally I hope that RTE do the right thing and finally cover all four of the main speeches rather than cutting away to their panel as soon as Lenihan finishes. The people have a right to see the opposition spokespersons putting their point as one of them is likely to end up being the Minister for Finance in early 2011 who is going to have to implement the mess that the current government leave behind.
Tuesday, November 30, 2010
The Bailout
This EU/IMF bailout stinks for a whole lot of reasons. Our great leaders went into the discussions and seemed to be happy to give away everything as long as corporation tax wasn't touched. I am not at all convinced by the arguments around corporation tax and the reasons for keeping it at 12.5% but I am pretty sure that flushing the country down the toilet isn't one of them. And even after the draconian measures being imposed on us I'm pretty sure that the bailout isn't going to fix Ireland, Irish banks or stop the spread of "contagion" to the rest of the EU.
As I have harped on about before, the entire mess goes back to the disastrous bank guarantee in September 2008. Turning private debt in the banks into sovereign debt owed by the tax payer was the single most stupid thing ever done by Fianna Fáil and it's not like there aren't plenty of other options to choose from. This has left the tax payer on the hook for the banks' massive borrowings still outstanding to European banks. This is where the biggest stink in the bailout comes from.
We are being loaned €22.5B from the IMF and a further €45B from two EU funds. On top of that we have to immediately throw most of the contents of the Pension Reserve Fund into the black hole of the banks. All of this bank funding is required to enable the German, French and UK banks as well as the ECB to be repaid at some point in the future. So the net result of the liability to the Irish tax payer is that other EU banks remain solvent. Seems to me like that's pretty good leverage to have in negotiating terms on these loans. Instead the government played meekly and took whatever was offered without flexing any muscle at all.
Secondly we have to ask, what is the price being paid for this money? We the tax payer are being lumped with an average rate of 5.8% for the €67.5B external bailout. That's just under €4B per year in interest to the EU/IMF. But when you look at long term financing costs for Germany they come in at around 2.67% on their 10 year bonds, so we are being gouged by our EU partners by over 3%. Hardly, seems like a community coming together to help each other out. Again we should have turned around and say that unless the rate was closer to 3% that we would just default and bring the whole Euro house of cards tumbling down.
Finally, how will this bailout actually help Ireland and our deficit in current spending? The fastest way to close the gap between taxation and spending is to get sustainable growth back in the economy and the best way to do that is via targeted stimulus using the NPRF. Having now blown our main avenue for growth on the banks we are now stuck in a zero/low growth scenario with higher and higher interest payments swamping any increase in taxation due to growth. That means we have to raise additional taxes and since corporation tax is sacrosanct, that means extra income tax, PRSI, property taxes, VAT, excise and the like for the ordinary punter.
We are now in a downward spiral from which there appears to be very little hope of exiting. Thanks a bunch Soldiers of Destiny.
As I have harped on about before, the entire mess goes back to the disastrous bank guarantee in September 2008. Turning private debt in the banks into sovereign debt owed by the tax payer was the single most stupid thing ever done by Fianna Fáil and it's not like there aren't plenty of other options to choose from. This has left the tax payer on the hook for the banks' massive borrowings still outstanding to European banks. This is where the biggest stink in the bailout comes from.
We are being loaned €22.5B from the IMF and a further €45B from two EU funds. On top of that we have to immediately throw most of the contents of the Pension Reserve Fund into the black hole of the banks. All of this bank funding is required to enable the German, French and UK banks as well as the ECB to be repaid at some point in the future. So the net result of the liability to the Irish tax payer is that other EU banks remain solvent. Seems to me like that's pretty good leverage to have in negotiating terms on these loans. Instead the government played meekly and took whatever was offered without flexing any muscle at all.
Secondly we have to ask, what is the price being paid for this money? We the tax payer are being lumped with an average rate of 5.8% for the €67.5B external bailout. That's just under €4B per year in interest to the EU/IMF. But when you look at long term financing costs for Germany they come in at around 2.67% on their 10 year bonds, so we are being gouged by our EU partners by over 3%. Hardly, seems like a community coming together to help each other out. Again we should have turned around and say that unless the rate was closer to 3% that we would just default and bring the whole Euro house of cards tumbling down.
Finally, how will this bailout actually help Ireland and our deficit in current spending? The fastest way to close the gap between taxation and spending is to get sustainable growth back in the economy and the best way to do that is via targeted stimulus using the NPRF. Having now blown our main avenue for growth on the banks we are now stuck in a zero/low growth scenario with higher and higher interest payments swamping any increase in taxation due to growth. That means we have to raise additional taxes and since corporation tax is sacrosanct, that means extra income tax, PRSI, property taxes, VAT, excise and the like for the ordinary punter.
We are now in a downward spiral from which there appears to be very little hope of exiting. Thanks a bunch Soldiers of Destiny.
Wednesday, November 24, 2010
Protest time again
This coming Saturday, ICTU are holding a protest march from Wood Quay to the GPO. This comes almost a year after the last major incident where I spent a day in the pub North doing Xmas shopping cold picketing a building site on Pearse Street. The upcoming demonstration, while nominally about Congress' alternative to the austerity measures, is really the best opportunity for the general public to register their disgust with the decisions and plans of the current government.
Over the last 10 years, the Unions, both public and private sector, have not exactly covered themselves in glory. The fiasco of benchmarking and partnership along with lightning strikes and blue flus have not endeared the organisations to the general public. At this point the sight of Jack O'Connor, David Begg and Blair Horan on the TV has most people either reaching for the remote or throwing something at the screen.
However, this protest has to be about more than the Unions. These organisations are the only groups who are able to mobilize large numbers of people to form the core of a protest. Compare this Saturday's events with the Right to Work events last May and June where there was never more than 1,000 people in attendance and in may cases substantially less. The involvement of fringe groups such as SWP, Eirigí and Anarchists only puts people off attending. The Unions, despite all their faults, give some level of legitimacy to the event.
So turn up on Saturday. Bring a sign and feel free to put an anti-Union slogan - you won't be alone. Together the masses can have a say and hopefully put an end to this disastrous government and their failed policies.
Over the last 10 years, the Unions, both public and private sector, have not exactly covered themselves in glory. The fiasco of benchmarking and partnership along with lightning strikes and blue flus have not endeared the organisations to the general public. At this point the sight of Jack O'Connor, David Begg and Blair Horan on the TV has most people either reaching for the remote or throwing something at the screen.
However, this protest has to be about more than the Unions. These organisations are the only groups who are able to mobilize large numbers of people to form the core of a protest. Compare this Saturday's events with the Right to Work events last May and June where there was never more than 1,000 people in attendance and in may cases substantially less. The involvement of fringe groups such as SWP, Eirigí and Anarchists only puts people off attending. The Unions, despite all their faults, give some level of legitimacy to the event.
So turn up on Saturday. Bring a sign and feel free to put an anti-Union slogan - you won't be alone. Together the masses can have a say and hopefully put an end to this disastrous government and their failed policies.
Monday, November 22, 2010
Insert coin to continue
I go away for a quick weekend trip to Cork and Galway and I come back to Dublin to discover the country has fallen apart at the seams. Well nothing like playing catchup on about 1000 blog posts, 10,000 tweets and 100,000 politics.ie posts. This is now the end of the end for this government. Gormley's statement this morning that he wants an election date in late January has given us all a target date to aim for. However, I'm still not convinced that we won't have an election this side of Christmas.
Somewhere around Enfield I switched over to the radio, having been listening to Grand Magus' awesome Hammer of the North up until then, to catch the end of the news and some of Liveline. Firstly Mammy O'Rourke, who's constituency I had just zipped through at 120km/h, was blathering on about the Fianna Fáil leadership issue and how they would take stock in the New Year after the budget had been passed. Talk about not getting it - the people don't care about internal FF shenanigans anymore and with the Greens having put a sunset clause on this Dáil sticking to her timetable would leave them dealing with a leadership heave right in the middle of an election campaign.
Then Sean Power came on Joe Duffy and suggested that Cowen resign with almost immediate effect, the parties all come together and pass a budget to appease the IMF and then we have our election next year. The problem with that is if Cowen is gone then so too will be support from Lowry and Healy-Rae. Thus after the by-election in DSE spells the game is up with 82 opposition (51FG, 20L, 5SF, McGrath, O'Sullivan, Behan, Grealish, Lowry, JHR) and only 80 government.
Later on this week I'll get around to the IMF issue but at the pace things are moving right now that will be very old news by then.
Somewhere around Enfield I switched over to the radio, having been listening to Grand Magus' awesome Hammer of the North up until then, to catch the end of the news and some of Liveline. Firstly Mammy O'Rourke, who's constituency I had just zipped through at 120km/h, was blathering on about the Fianna Fáil leadership issue and how they would take stock in the New Year after the budget had been passed. Talk about not getting it - the people don't care about internal FF shenanigans anymore and with the Greens having put a sunset clause on this Dáil sticking to her timetable would leave them dealing with a leadership heave right in the middle of an election campaign.
Then Sean Power came on Joe Duffy and suggested that Cowen resign with almost immediate effect, the parties all come together and pass a budget to appease the IMF and then we have our election next year. The problem with that is if Cowen is gone then so too will be support from Lowry and Healy-Rae. Thus after the by-election in DSE spells the game is up with 82 opposition (51FG, 20L, 5SF, McGrath, O'Sullivan, Behan, Grealish, Lowry, JHR) and only 80 government.
Later on this week I'll get around to the IMF issue but at the pace things are moving right now that will be very old news by then.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)