Election Predictions - Overall

In the four previous posts I have predicted the seats in each of the 43 constituencies around the country. The aggregate totals are as follows

FF	FG	Lab	SF	G	ULA	Left Indo	Right Indo
32	63	42	14	1	4	4	6

This leaves the following combinations as potential governments. This is purely on the numbers, not based on ideology or statements of exclusion.

1. Fine Gael and Labour - 105 seats, majority of 45
   
2. Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil - 95 seats, majority of 25
   
3. Fine Gael, Sinn Féin, Left Indos and ULA - 85 seats, majority of 5
   
4. Labour, Fianna Fáil and Sinn Féin - 88 seats, majority of 11
   
5. Labour, Fianna Fáil and all Indos, ULA - 88 seats, majority of 11
   

Option 1 is the outcome that everyone is expecting. Option 2 is the logical end of the civil war but has been ruled out by Fine Gael even if it is a minority FG with support from FF. Option 3 wouldn't last a wet week - all those lefties would have Leo Varadkar going up in a puff of smoke. Options 4 and 5 have been ruled out by Labour and rightly so as FF need to be put into opposition.

Therefore on my predictions we're heading for a substantial FG/L coalition with Enda Kenny as Taoiseach and Eamon Gilmore as Tánaiste with 9 FG and 6 L around the cabinet table with an additional super-junior or attorney general being appointed by Gilmore. There just isn't any other realistic option on the table.

PS - time moves fast in politics at the moment. Since I posted my Donegal predictions it turns out that Blaney will not be running for FF. Oh well!