The headline story is the 7 point increase for Labour pushing them above Fianna Fáil into second place on 23%. There are a few plausible explanations for this massive increase in support in such a short period of time.
- Party Conference
- The Labour Party Conference was held in Galway a few weeks ago. The televised leader's speech by Eamon Gilmore was positive and well received generally. Generally after a conference a party's support can be expected to increase somewhat.
- New Recruits
- The party has been actively recruiting members and potential candidates in the last while, especially in areas where previously there would be little support for Labour. With a plausible candidate in place, voters who might previously have only been inclined to vote for the party will now actually come out and declare their support.
- UK Issues
- Nick Clegg and the Liberal Democrats in the UK have shown that it is possible to become a new force in a stale electoral situation. While Clegg's star seems to be fading again, over the polling period a lot of the news cycle from the UK was centered on his excellent performance in the first leaders' debate. There is now serious momentum for Gilmore to be included in a three way debate with Kenny and Cowen whenever the next general election is called.
- Consolidation
- The left vote is consolidating behind Labour most notable with a 4% drop in support for Sinn Féin. Again with Labour being seen as a serious threat to the two larger parties the protest vote will move Labour rather than start off as a PBP or the like and then transfer to Labour at a later count
The real question is how much of this jump is permanent or is it actually a rogue poll that sometimes just happens with the random sampling. If June's RedC shows Labour still above 20% then I would see this as a sustainable increase in core support rather than just a flash in the pan.
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